Poll: 65 Percent Believe Bolsonaro Primarily Responsible for Emergency Aid Benefit

RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – President Jair Bolsonaro is primarily responsible for granting the R$600 emergency aid for 65 percent of the population. Only 32 percent of Brazilians assign the benefit to the National Congress.

The data are part of an exclusive survey by the Exame/IDEIA platform, a project that will be launched in coming days that joins Exame Research, Exame’s investment analysis arm, and IDEIA, a research institute specialized in public opinion.

The survey was conducted by phone with 1,235 people in all regions of the country between August 24th and 31st. The error margin is three percentage points, plus or minus.

In the Exame/IDEIA survey, 44 percent of respondents receive the aid. In this group, 25 percent say their approval of the government has improved after the benefit was granted. For 67 percent, the aid neither improved nor worsened their assessment. On Tuesday, September 1st, the President announced the reduction of emergency aid to R$300 (US$60) per month. Four more installments will be paid under the new amount.

“It’s rare to see a measure coming from the government that alters its assessment in such a short time,” says Maurício Moura, founder of IDEIA, a research institute specializing in opinion, and professor of public policy at George Washington University. “A quarter of the population increased their approval of the government because of a specific event in four months.”

Among those with incomes up to one minimum wage, 77 percent consider the President mainly responsible for granting the benefit, compared to 47 percent of those receiving three to five salaries. In the North region, 69 percent of respondents attribute the R$600 to the President. In the Northeast, it is 67 percent.

Government approval

The President’s approval stands at 38 percent, according to the survey. The assessment remains virtually unchanged from the previous survey, published two weeks ago, when the president’s approval stood at 37 percent.

Among the 38 percent who approve of the Bolsonaro government, 96 percent consider the President to be mainly responsible for granting the R$600 aid.

“Bolsonaro did not take advantage of the pandemic like other world leaders. Had he made a unifying speech, his approval would have been much higher,” says Moura.

The increase in approval in regions once strongly opposed to the President, such as among voters in the Northeast region and those with lower income, is part of the motive for the higher approval. Currently, the approval of Bolsonaro is similar among all income brackets (having dropped among the highest income voters and increased among the poorest).

The emergency aid reached 66 million Brazilians, who received, in total, over R$160 (US$30) billion. More than 36 million casual workers had access to R$73 billion. “The economic loss to the country caused by the pandemic could have been much worse had it not been for the emergency aid,” says Moura.

Higher value

The survey also showed that nine out of ten Brazilians want to maintain the emergency aid. For 53 percent of respondents, the benefit should be maintained at R$600 per month. Another 37 percent consider that the aid should continue, but at a reduced amount.

The survey also asked what would be the reaction in case of value reduction. For 48 percent of respondents, a cut in value is bad but acceptable, since the impact of the crisis triggered by the pandemic should remain for a longer period. For 23 percent of respondents, the reduction in value is unacceptable.

The government intends to launch the Renda Brasil (Brazil Income) program in the next few days, planned to boost the Bolsa Família (Family Grant). For 30 percent of respondents, it is understandable that Renda Brasil will distribute less than R$600 per month since the worst of the pandemic has now passed.

Source: Exame