The World Bank’s new forecast is that China’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will grow only 2.8% in 2022.
The institution presented a report with new forecasts for Asian countries on Monday, September 26.
The Chinese GDP grew 8.1% in 2021—the forecasted reduction for 2022 results from the restrictions to end covid.
Bank of America estimates that Brazil’s GDP will grow by 3.25% in 2022. Goldman Sachs estimates an increase of 2.9%.
If Brazilian growth exceeds China’s, it will be the first time in 41 years. In 1980 Brazil’s GDP grew by 9.2% and China’s by 7.8%. Never again has Brazil surpassed China.
The World Bank’s current forecast for Brazil is 1.5%. It came out in June. The revision for Latin America will come out on Wednesday, October 4.
Market analysts consulted by the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) have been raising their estimates weekly. The most recent median estimate in the Focus bulletin is 2.67%.
ANALYSIS
There are great chances that Brazilians’ sense of prosperity will increase after the election, independently of who wins.
Surpassing China’s rate, if this is confirmed, will be remarkable. But even if it is the consequence of something episodic, as a result of the radical policy to eliminate covid in the country, it should also be seen as the consequence of something bigger.
After the impressive growth of the past decades, moving forward has become more challenging. That is partly a consequence of the so-called “middle-income trap,” which helps explain Brazil’s difficulty in growing since the 1980s.
The benefits of cheap labor and productivity gains from investments in production become less pronounced. The population is less willing to make sacrifices.
Brazilian exporters will need to look to other Asian economies, which tend to grow more strongly than China.
But it is also necessary for Brazil to look for new opportunities in China. A more mature economy faces challenges and tends to turn to other countries as a destination for investments.
With information from Poder360