The financial market forecasts inflation of 6.05% for 2023, an index above last week’s projection of 6.04%.
It is the fifth consecutive week of high projections, according to the Focus Bulletin, released on Tuesday, 2, by the Central Bank.
For 2024 and 2025, the projection is for the stability of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official inflation index calculated monthly by the Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
For next year, market analysts maintained the inflation projection at 4.18% and, for 2025, at 4%.
Despite the increase in the IPCA, the market also forecasts an improvement in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2023.
This week, the forecast is for 1% growth, compared to 0.96% last week. It is the second week in a row of forecast increases.
For 2024, the Focus Bulletin indicates stability in GDP growth at 1.41%, the same level as last week.
For 2025, the projection went to 1.8%, against 1.7% in the previous week.
Concerning the basic interest rate (Selic), market analysts estimate that it will be 12.5% in 2023, the same level as last week. Today, the Selic is at 13.75%.
For 2024 and 2025, analysts have maintained the projections of the previous weeks of a Selic of 10% and 9%, respectively.
The exchange rate also remained stable, and the projection is that the dollar will end in 2023 at R$5.20.
Published weekly, the Focus Bulletin summarizes statistics calculated considering market expectations collected until the Friday before its release.
The report shows the graphical evolution and the weekly behavior of projections for price indexes, inflation, economic activity, foreign exchange, and the Selic rate, among other indicators.
The projections come from the market, not from the Central Bank.
With information from Revista Oeste