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Bolsonaro government raises Brazil’s primary surplus forecast in 2022 to US$6.5 billion

The outgoing Bolsonaro government raised the primary surplus projection in 2022 from R$23.36 billion to R$34.14 (US$6.5) billion.

The numbers are in the different versions of the Report of Revenue and Expenditure Evaluation, a document that guides the execution of the Budget released by the Ministry of Economy.

Sent to the National Congress every two months, the report had an extemporaneous (unexpected) edition in December to accommodate the difficulties in the Budget at the end of the year.

The primary surplus represents the difference between revenues and expenses, disregarding the interest payment on public debt.

Brazilian government raises primary surplus forecast in 2022 to US$6.5 billion. (Photo internet reproduction)
Brazilian government raises primary surplus forecast in 2022 to US$6.5 billion. (Photo internet reproduction)

The performance will be well above the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) for 2022, which stipulates a primary deficit of R$170.5 billion.

The issue of an extra report in December was announced by the Treasury Secretary, Paulo Valle, at the end of last month.

According to the document released on Thursday, revenue estimates rose by R$6.264 billion, driven mainly by the collection of taxes linked to profits and revenues from concessions and privatizations due to the payment of hydroelectric power plant concessions that occurred at the end of this year.

The expenditure forecast fell R$5.844 billion in relation to the report presented in November.

The main drops were in estimates for subsidies and grants (-R$1.424 billion) and discretionary spending (-R$4.418 billion).

The drop in discretionary spending occurred because they were reallocated to the mandatory expenses item, such as the Paulo Gustavo Law, whose execution became compulsory after a decision by the Federal Supreme Court (STF), and spending on the National Penitentiary Fund (Funpen) and the Union’s supplement to the Severance Indemnity Fund (FGTS).

According to the special substitute secretary of Treasury and Budget, Julio Alexandre, the constant scenario changes throughout the year led the economic team to revise the projections several times.

“At the beginning of the year, the market estimated economic growth of 0.3%. The most updated market projection is 3%, ten times higher,” he said. With information from Agência Brasil.

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