Jair Bolsonaro has a serious chance of being re-elected as president of Brazil.
Does this mean Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva cannot win the ballot? No, the former president is still the favorite, but by a shrinking margin against a Bolsonaro who has been growing in recent weeks.
“If in the first round there was still a fear among Bolsonaristas that Lula da Silva could win in the first round, the climate now is one of optimism,” highlighted this weekend Folha de S.Paulo, a media that cannot precisely be labeled Bolsonarist.
Marta Suplicy, da Silva’s friend and historical figure of the Workers’ Party (PT, left), lamented that the former president should have “broadened” his coalition, but “he did not do what he should have done.”
“It is difficult to win only with the left, to stay in the bubble of the left,” she added.
“And now you see the results, what we have always said, that it is all very even with Bolsonaro and that this was not necessary. Lula da Silva could have won in the first round if it had been widened, as I suggested.”
Suplicy adds something else: “He (Lula da Silva) agrees, but there is a [leftist] bubble that does not accept it. I think he will win, but it will be very close.”
Suplicy’s analysis could be questioned from the strong irruption in the campaign of the center-right Simone Tebet, third in the first round and who in recent days is starring in passionate speeches in defense of Lula da Silva, since, in her opinion, four more years of Bolsonaro in the Planalto would be a “danger to democracy.”
But this presence of Tebet in the campaign takes place in the context of a coalition led by the PT that shaped a nostalgic campaign: rather than talking about the future, da Silva has spent much time defending his two presidencies between 2003 and 2011 and often promises to do the same.
Bolsonaro, on the other hand, talks about issues closer in time: “Brazil has one of the cheapest gasoline in the world and has had three consecutive months of deflation”.
These economic data, added to the electioneering increase of social subsidies to the most underprivileged sectors, are helping to bring the president closer to the polls, which failed badly in the first round by underestimating the right-wing candidate’s vote flow.
TECHNICAL TIE
The latest polls mark 49% of voting intention for Lula da Silva against 45% for Bolsonaro. If the margin of error of two points up or down is considered, it can be said that we are facing a technical tie.
While da Silva has the support of many cultural figures, Bolsonaro has the increasingly enthusiastic support of the soccer player Neymar and a very intense protagonism of First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro.
With the possibility of increasing his already huge vote in the country’s south, Bolsonaro agreed with mayors and evangelical churches to reduce his disadvantage in the Northeast, key for the 48.4% vs. 43.2% in favor of Lula da Silva in the first round.
The latest polls show that this strategy, coupled with social subsidies, is working for the president.
Bolsonaro will have a greater presence on television in these final days because Lula da Silva resigned to participate in the next two debates, which will become prime-time interviews with the president.
The key appointment will be this Friday, October 28, when Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro will coincide for the closing debate on TV Globo, just two days before 156 million Brazilians are summoned to the polls.
With information from El Mundo