The financial institutions the Brazilian Central Bank (BC) heard in the Focus Bulletin reduced from 5.74% to 5.71% the forecast for inflation measured by the National Wide Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for this year.
The new estimate was released on Monday, October 10.
The forecast for administered price inflation in 2022 increased from -4.45% to -4.43%. Meanwhile, this year’s projection for inflation measured by the General Price Index – Market (IGP-M) fell from 7.95% to 7.79%.
For 2023, the financial market sources consulted by the Central Bank maintained the forecast for inflation measured by the IPCA at 5%.
The inflation forecast for next year for administered prices – controlled by contract or by the government – decreased from 5.61% to 5.50%.
Furthermore, the inflation projection measured by the IGP-M fell from 4.70% to 4.59%.
INFLATION VS. GDP
The forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2023 increased from 0.53% to 0.54%. However, the estimate for 2022 remained stable at 2.70%.
INTEREST, EXCHANGE RATE, AND BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
The forecast for the basic interest rate (Selic) at the end of 2023 was kept at 11.25%.
Currently, it is at 13.75%, which means that the market expects a decrease of 2.50 percentage points (pp) by the end of the year.
For 2022, the estimate for the Selic rate remained at 13.75%.
The projection for the exchange rate in 2023 was stable at R$5.20 per dollar, while the estimate for 2022 remained at R$5.20 per dollar. Four weeks ago, the forecasts were the same for both years.
The financial institutions the Central Bank (BC) heard in the Focus Bulletin survey maintained the forecast for the trade surplus in 2023 at US$60 billion, the same value observed last week.
The trade balance measures the result of sales of goods abroad (exports) minus purchases of goods from abroad (imports).
For 2022, the institutions reduced the trade surplus forecast to US$60 billion, against US$61.5 billion the previous week.
With information from Agência Brasil