RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The election for presidential succession in Brazil is becoming increasingly crystallized. A PoderData survey conducted from June 5 to June 7 shows that the number of those who have already chosen a pre-candidate and do not intend to change their vote by October has grown to 82%.
This figure is nine percentage points higher than the one registered three months earlier. Those who can still change their choice are only 11%. In April, 18% had made this statement. There are still 7% who do not know whether or not they have decided to vote – up from 9% in the last survey.
According to the same research, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (43%) and Jair Bolsonaro (35%) concentrate 78% of voting intentions. Of these voters, 90% of both pre-candidates say they are fully decided on their choice and will “certainly” vote for the chosen name.
Among those who chose PDT’s Ciro Gomes (6%), who is in 3rd place in the general scenario, 32% admit the possibility of voting for another name in October. Those who are decided about their choice in this stratum are 64%.
Of the 5% who intend to annul their vote or vote in blank, 68% are totally decided on this position. Another 28% can still migrate to a pre-candidate.
PoderData asked the interviewees – if they were sure they would vote for the candidate they chose today or if they could still change their mind and choose another candidate – right after asking them about their voting intention, considering the scenario with all the names.
The survey was carried out by PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo group. The data were collected through calls to cell phones and landlines.
There were 3,000 interviews in 309 cities in the 27 states. The margin of error is two percentage points. The confidence interval is of 95%. TSE Registration: BR-01975/2022.
To reach 3,000 interviews that proportionally fill the groups by sex, age, income, education, and geographical location as they appear in society, PoderData makes tens of thousands of phone calls.
Often more than 100,000 calls until the interviewees that faithfully represent the entire population are found.
FIRST ROUND SCENARIO
Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT) maintained the same 43% of voting intention as 15 days ago. Bolsonaro (Liberal Party – PL) had 35%, identical to his score two weeks earlier. The distance between the two leaders is eight points.
After João Doria (PSDB) gave up his candidacy for the Palácio do Planalto, the only representative of the so-called third way is now Simone Tebet (MDB-MS). She has had ample exposure in the media in the last 15 days. Tebet had 2% in the previous PoderData study. Now she has 1%.
Ciro Gomes (PDT) remains close to the previous polls: he has 6%. André Janones (Avante) has 2%. Only two other candidates scored: José Maria Eymael (DC) and Luciano Bivar (União Brasil). The other micro-candidates did not have enough mentions to reach 1%. There are still 5% who say they intend to vote blank or null. And 5% claim to be undecided.
With information from Poder360