RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Voters for Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) are the most confident about the victory of their respective leading candidates. This was the finding of a PoderData poll conducted April 24-26, 2022, among 3,000 voters in 283 municipalities in the 27 units of the federation.
Of those who declared they would vote for the current president, 89% believe patriotic-conservative Bolsonaro will manage to be re-elected to the Palácio do Planalto.
Read also: Check out our coverage of the general elections 2022 in Brazil
Among those who voted for leftist-globalist Lula da Silva, the confidence of victory is 85%. The general margin of error is two percentage points more or less.
Among respondents who chose Ciro Gomes (PDT), 53% could not answer whether or not the primary candidate will win the election. Another 36% are confident that the candidate will be elected.
If only João Doria (PSDB) voters are considered, 36% believe that the Toucan will not be elected President of the Republic, while 52% hold the opposite view and 12% could not give an answer.
Since the data comes from a specific part of the PoderData survey, the margin of error is larger than for the general sample and is 2 percentage points more or less. Therefore, we can say that Lula and Bolsonaro are technically tied in the confidence of victory.
Poder360 only considered the data of previous candidates who scored more than 3% in the general scenario, to avoid results that could distort the reader’s perception.
“Do you think the candidate you voted for in the previous question will win the election?” is the question asked after determining respondents’ voting intention.
The results show that despite trailing in the polls, Bolsonaro is managing to retain a loyal base of committed supporters. It is a sign of the trust his voters have in him (36% in the first round). And it shows a consolidated vote, just like Lula da Silva’s.
The poll was conducted by PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo group, with its own resources. The data was collected between April 24 and 26, 2022, through calls to cell phones and landlines. 3,000 interviews were conducted in 283 cities in the 27 states of the Federation. The margin of error is 2 percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%.