RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Latin America will have a loaded electoral agenda in November. The polls will change the political map in Argentina, Chile, and Honduras and increase tension in Nicaragua. President Daniel Ortega will win his reelection in general elections after arresting all opposition candidates one by one.
Nicaragua goes to the polls this Sunday with Ortega as its only candidate, as the opposition considers the other contenders to be “cronies” of the regime. The president is seeking his third consecutive reelection.
Ortega launched a severe crackdown in June, when he began arresting all opposition candidates who, according to polls, were most likely to win, among them Cristiana Chamorro, daughter of former President Violeta Barrios de Chamorro. She aspired to repeat the feat of her mother, who in 1990 defeated the former Sandinista guerrilla.
A poll by the Cid Gallup institute released Sunday by Confidencial magazine shows that 76% of Nicaraguans consider that Ortega’s reelection will not be legitimate. The poll shows that in a competitive race, 65% of voters would choose any of the “opposition candidates,” while 17% would vote for Ortega and his wife and vice president, Rosario Murillo.
The opposition classified the elections as a “farce,” and the United States, the OAS, and the European Union have warned about the lack of guarantees in the electoral process.
The following Sunday, the 14th, the government of President Alberto Fernández faces crucial legislative elections in Argentina. The primaries held in September, a mandatory first stage of elections for voters and parties, were a catastrophe for the governing party, with defeats in 18 of the country’s 24 districts.
If the result is repeated now in the final election, Peronism will lose its majority in the Senate (and its quorum) and cease to be the most significant bench in the Chamber of Deputies. The opposition would remain in the Chamber of Deputies in a legal position to demand the presidency of the House.
The government has been trying by all means to reverse the trend indicated by the polls through multi-million dollar social assistance plans for the poorest, credits for the middle class, and a campaign based on candidates’ contact with voters.
The economic crisis, the unease derived from the pandemic, and the infighting in the coalition that brought Fernández to the Casa Rosada make it difficult for this strategy to succeed.
It will be Chile’s turn on the third Sunday of November, the 21st, where Sebastián Piñera’s successor will be elected. It will be the most polarized election since the return to democracy in 1990.
Two years after the October uprisings, social unrest has barely diminished, and a Constituent Assembly dominated by independents has been drafting a constitution for four months to replace the one inherited from the dictatorship. The economic environment has worsened, as has the social mood.
The malaise has given vigor to the candidacy of José Antonio Kast, an extreme-right candidate who defends the legacy of dictator Augusto Pinochet. Kast leads the polls with 22% of the vote, followed by the candidate of the left-wing coalition Broad Front, Gabriel Boric.
Formed in the student uprisings of 2011, Boric has the support of 17.4% of Chileans. In any case, the scenario is one of a result that will force a tie-breaking second round, scheduled for December 19.
The electoral month will be closed by Hondurans on Sunday, November 28. It will be a lackluster election because of reports of fraud and allegations of President Juan Orlando Hernandez’s alleged links to drug trafficking, investigated by authorities in the United States.
Polls indicate that the election will be contested by two groups, the ruling National Party candidate Nasry Asfura and Freedom and Refoundation leader Xiomara Castro. More than five million Hondurans are eligible to go to the polls to elect a president, 128 congressional seats, and 20 seats in the Central American Parliament.
A survey by the Center for the Study of Democracy (Cespad), published last week, shows Castro, wife of former President Manuel Zelaya, leading the electoral preferences. Zelaya was overthrown by a coup d’etat in 2009 that removed him from power in his pajamas and at gunpoint, which polarized Honduran society.
The survey shows that the Freedom and Refoundation candidate has 38% voting preferences, compared to 21% for her closest rival, the conservative Asfura, with 21% voting intentions. In other words, if the election were held now, Castro would win the race with a 17 percentage point advantage.
Source: El Pais