USDA Lowers 2023/24 US Cotton Outlook, Brazil Stable

The USDA has revised the 2023/24 US cotton forecast downward to 12.10 million bales from an earlier projection of 12.43 million.

This update came in its recent supply and demand report last Friday. The reduction indicates a slight shift in expectations for the upcoming crop year.

For the US, the ending stocks are now set at 2.50 million bales, reflecting a decrease from the previously anticipated 2.80 million.

Despite this adjustment, the projection for cotton exports remains stable at 12.30 million bales for the next production cycle.

Meanwhile, Brazil‘s cotton production estimate for the 2023–24 season stays at 14.56 million bales.

However, a minor revision has been made to the ending stocks, now forecast at 5.83 million bales.

Expectations are for Brazilian cotton exports to remain steady at 11.20 million bales for the forthcoming cycle.

Globally, cotton production estimates for 2023–24 season increased to 112.96 million bales from the USDA’s previous estimate of 112.82 million.

This adjustment indicates a marginal rise in the global cotton supply.

However, the worldwide ending stocks for the new season slightly decrease to 83.34 million bales, down from an earlier forecast of 83.70 million

This reshaping of the cotton market forecasts highlights the dynamic nature of agricultural production and its susceptibility to changing conditions.

US and global forecast adjustments, with Brazil’s stable production, reflect ongoing shifts in the cotton landscape, crucial for stakeholders.

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