The Ceres Leading Index (CLI), a predictive measure of Uruguay’s economic activity, rose by 0.3 percent in March.
This uptick signifies the sixth straight month of growth, a positive trend highlighted by the Ceres Research Institute.
This upward movement signals sustained economic growth into the first quarter of 2024. This continuation of growth builds on the momentum seen since the previous year’s end.
The Center for the Study of Economic and Social Reality (Ceres) detailed this in their monthly analysis.
March’s CLI gains were bolstered by improvements in more than half of its tracked variables.
The indicator’s Diffusion Index, which reached 63 percent, underscores this broad-based growth.
Despite a tough 2023 with only 0.4 percent economic growth due to drought, higher prices than Argentina, and major projects ending, Ceres looks positively towards 2024.
The end of the drought, a smaller price difference with Argentina, and the La Teja refinery’s restart should drive economic recovery.
The CLI aims to signal economic cycle shifts without making specific economic activity level forecasts.
The Central Bank of Uruguay (BCU) plans to publish its first-quarter National Accounts Report in June, providing further insights into the country’s economic direction.
Background
This growth trajectory is set against a backdrop of historical economic stability in Uruguay, characterized by prudent fiscal management and strategic policy-making.
As the country moves forward, the lessons from 2023’s economic performance will undoubtedly inform future strategies to foster growth, enhance resilience, and secure prosperity for its citizens.
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