The U.S. has ceded its corn export crown to Brazil, possibly forever

The U.S. has ceded its corn export crown to Brazil, possibly forever.

For over fifty years, the United States held sway over the international corn market, exporting more of this essential commodity than any other nation.

Recently, Brazil surpassed the US in corn exports. This change could be permanent.

In 2023, the US accounted for 23% of global corn exports. Brazil’s share was nearly 32%, says the USDA.

Predictions for 2024 suggest Brazil will maintain its lead.

The US lost its top position before, in 2013 due to drought. But this is the first time it’s been second for two years straight.

The US has also lost its lead in soybean and wheat exports over the past decade.

Several factors contribute to this shift. These include rising domestic costs, land scarcity, and the impact of Trump’s trade war with China.

A strong US dollar and encouragement of domestic corn use for ethanol production also play a role.

Brazil, on the other hand, benefits from a weaker currency.

This makes its corn exports more competitive. It also has two corn harvests each year, compared to the US’s one.

Brazil is likely to remain the global corn market leader despite US corn sector improvements.

This shift in agricultural leadership marks a significant change. The US once used food as a geopolitical tool during the Cold War.

The US still has a large share of global soybean exports, but its corn and wheat export share is now in the single digits.

With US-China diplomatic relations unlikely to improve soon, the US agricultural sector may continue facing global market challenges.