Deutsche Bank’s recent analysis highlights a notable trend in the Andean region – Chile, Colombia, and Peru are shying away from dramatic political shifts.
Leaders in these nations, despite their left-leaning politics, are showing restraint. This trend brings relief to investors who often worry about radical changes.
In Chile, the final stages of drafting a new constitution are underway. Efforts to make it palatable for a December referendum are in full swing.
Despite a slight uptick in support for the draft, opposition remains strong. Earlier forecasts by the Bank of America had predicted a more investor-friendly constitution.
Chile’s Central Bank is also aligning its policies with the market, slowing down interest rate cuts and halting dollar buying.
The country’s fiscal plan for the next year looks to fix the budget after this year’s fiscal drift gradually.
Turning to Colombia, a Deutsche Bank prediction pointed to a waning popularity for President Gustavo Petro before the local October elections.
The actual results confirmed this, with a significant defeat for Petro’s administration.
According to political analyst Fernando Posada, this loss was stark in cities where Petro’s government or allies had previously held sway.
Monetary Policy
The Deutsche Bank report also touches on Colombia’s monetary policy.
It suggests the central bank’s options for adjusting interest rates are limited due to persistent high inflation.
Nonetheless, the country is seeing fiscal improvements thanks to effective tax reforms.
In Peru, President Boluarte’s government remains stable, despite low approval rates. Her approach is notably more moderate compared to her predecessor Castillo.
An Ipsos survey showed a substantial approval jump for Boluarte, contrasting sharply with Castillo’s low endorsement.
Finally, the Deutsche Bank report points out an improvement in trade balances for these nations, driven by favorable trade terms and subdued local demand.
While their economic deficits are shrinking, funding quality remains a concern.