Gustavo Petro’s government looks to tourism, clean energy, and agriculture for economic advancement, moving away from oil dependency.
After a 15-year low in 2022 with a 0.8% drop, the agricultural sector rebounded in 2023, growing by 1.8%.
Agriculture, livestock, fishing, and forestry exceeded 2019 figures, showing growth in late 2023.
Coffee output, however, was 23% below pre-pandemic levels but rebounded with 28.6% growth in late 2023, a peak since 2011.
Challenges Ahead
Agriculture and coffee drove 2023’s 2.4% and 4.7% growth, aided by lower costs and better weather, despite El Niño’s mid-year arrival.
Corficolombiana noted 6.0% sector growth in late 2023, leading economic sectors.
2024 faces climatic hurdles. El Niño, stronger and longer-lasting than NOAA’s June 2023 predictions, began affecting the globe in late 2023.
Early 2024 Resilience
Despite early 2024’s climatic shocks, the sector shows signs of recovery, as indicated by rising supply data and coffee production.
Corficolombiana forecasts 2.5% sector growth in 2024, driven by agriculture (2.0%), coffee (8.1%), and livestock (1.4%).
Future Uncertainties
Climatic unpredictability introduces risks, with the potential for a harsher or prolonged El Niño and unexpected cost surges.
Corficolombiana highlights the risks from the Panama Canal situation and Red Sea vessel attacks.
A possible early and intense La Niña in late 2024 could impact the sector, reminiscent of 2021–2022’s effects.
Food prices, which were significant in 2022’s inflation spike, saw relief in 2023 from reduced input costs and currency appreciation.
Corficolombiana expects El Niño to have a short-term effect on prices, forecasting food inflation between 1.2% and 4.8% for the year, influenced by main production input costs.