After a notable El Niño phase, a shift to La Niña is expected by late 2024.
This change is likely to increase rainfall in regions like Australia, Southeast Asia, and India but may cause drier conditions in the Americas.
The exact impact on crops remains uncertain, with predictions leaning towards a mild La Niña effect.
Chris Hyde, a meteorologist, notes that most models forecast a weak La Niña, with minimal predicting a strong one.
The transition follows a year of El Niño that brought dry conditions to Asia and more rain to parts of the Americas, affecting agriculture differently across the globe.
For instance, India faced export restrictions due to poor monsoon rains, while Australia saw a dip in wheat production.
Southeast Asia’s palm oil and rice yields also suffered from reduced rainfall.
The upcoming La Niña could reverse these trends, benefiting crops in Australia and Southeast Asia, depending on when the rains arrive.
Ole Houe, an agricultural advisor, emphasizes the importance of rainfall timing for crop success.
In India, a regular monsoon could improve agricultural output and incomes. However, parts of South India might still face dry conditions.
In South America, La Niña typically brings more rain to the south, helping crops in Argentina and Uruguay.
Conversely, northern Brazil could experience drought, affecting water supply and agriculture.
While increased rainfall could boost crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina, there’s also a risk of flooding.
The impact of La Niña varies, making it crucial for farmers to monitor forecasts and adapt accordingly.
This period presents both challenges and opportunities for global agriculture, highlighting the need for strategic planning and accurate weather predictions to navigate potential uncertainties.