Last Friday marked a positive yet declining trend for corn futures on the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3), showing prices between R$56.44 and R$61.00 but with a weekly downturn.
The contracts for March/24 increased to R$61.00, up by 1.33%, while May/24 slightly rose to R$56.44, a 0.25% increase. July/24 and September/24 contracts also saw modest gains.
Despite these upticks, the week closed with notable declines across various future dates, highlighting market volatility.
Physical market changes were minimal, with notable adjustments in select regions.
Roberto Carlos Rafael noted market behavior mismatch, citing carryover stocks and second crop progress disparities.
Predictions had suggested reduced planting and output, yet the reality showed resilience and potential for a robust harvest in 2024.
The analyst anticipates further price declines, especially in the physical market, despite recent improvements.
This expectation stems from the surplus carried over from 2023 and an anticipated larger second crop in 2024.
With Brazil facing stiff competition in the international market, the focus shifts towards boosting exports to balance the surplus.
The current scenario poses challenges for Brazilian corn on the global stage, especially against major producers like the US, Argentina, and Ukraine.
A significant climatic event remains the only potential disruptor of this trend, with April’s climate already raising concerns.
CBOT reflects caution in the global corn market with a downward trend influenced by US weather and planting decisions.
Brazil navigates a dynamic corn market with local production, global competition, and climatic factors, balancing opportunities and challenges.