In February 2024, Brazil’s economic landscape faced significant challenges, with its Gross Government Debt (DBGG) reaching a record high of 75.55% of its GDP.
This marked a 0.43 percentage point increase from January, escalating concerns over the country’s fiscal health.
The Brazilian National Treasury’s projections indicated that the debt-to-GDP ratio would hit its highest at 76.0% in the current year.
It was then expected to gradually decline to 71.2% by 2032, a positive shift from the 72.9% seen at the close of 2022.
The recovery’s potential hinges on achieving a primary surplus and reducing the interest-to-GDP ratio, with a goal of reaching a 0% primary result of GDP in 2024.
This is expected to incrementally improve in the subsequent years.
Nevertheless, Brazil grapples with a precarious fiscal situation. An increase in tax collection, primarily from one-time events in January, did little to secure fiscal stability.
The increase in public debt has led President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to suggest raising the limits on government spending.
This proposal has raised concerns due to a shift from a period of decreasing debt levels over the last two years.
The Independent Fiscal Institution (IFI) forecasts an uptick in gross debt to 77.7% of GDP in 2024, with expectations of further growth to 80.2% by 2025.
The burden of mounting interest payments, financed by accruing more debt since 2014, stresses the urgent need for fiscal discipline.
Balancing government expenditures
Brazil faces economic uncertainties and must balance its spending with its income.
This challenge is heightened by slow economic growth, which isn’t enough to reduce the primary deficit’s impact on national debt.
Despite government pledges to enhance fiscal planning and review spending, skepticism remains about its willingness to cut expenses rather than focus solely on increasing revenue.
This scenario underscores the critical need for prudent fiscal management and strategic policy adjustments to steer Brazil towards fiscal sustainability amidst these challenges.