Brazil’s 2023–2024 second corn crop forecast has been revised upwards to 91.2 million tons by AgRural, hinting at a potential surplus despite not reaching last season’s record.
Initially pegged at 86.3 million tons in December, a positive adjustment in the planting area has brightened the outlook.
AgRural now estimates the “safrinha” corn’s planted area at 16.3 million hectares, down 4.7% from last year but less than the previously expected 9.4% decrease.
This update comes after revising soybean planting challenges, which dry and hot conditions had shortened, affecting the corn planting window.
As of last week, soybeans covered 23% of the planting area, improving from 17% the previous year.
Timely “safrinha” planting is crucial for avoiding moisture deficits in Brazil’s primary corn region as winter approaches and rainfall drops.
An unexpectedly large corn harvest would aid Brazilian farmers, who’ve faced soybean losses from adverse weather.
Despite fears that soybean replanting delays might jeopardize corn planting, Mato Grosso, a top-grain state, has not seen such issues.
Nevertheless, AgRural warns of tighter soybean profits and last-minute corn planting potentially hurting yields.
Even with more land planted, this year’s “safrinha” is unlikely to match the prior season’s 102.36 million-ton record by Conab.
This scenario underscores the dynamic interplay between climate, crop cycles, and agricultural strategies in shaping Brazil’s crop yields.