On January 31, 2024, Brazil’s Central Bank cut its main interest rate, the Selic, by 0.5%. The new rate is 11.25% per year.
This level is the lowest since March 2022. At that time, the rate was 10.75%. This change matters because it affects loans and savings. Lower rates can boost spending and investment.
The Monetary Policy Committee Copom, with eight directors and the president, Roberto Campos Neto, agreed on this. It’s their fifth straight cut, all by 0.5%.
This trend started when the rate was 13.75%. The bank had kept it there for a year to fight inflation.
Inflation measures how prices rise over time. Brazil ended 2023 with a 4.62% inflation rate. This was within their target range.
For 2024, experts think inflation will be 3.81%. The goal is 3%, with a 1.5% to 4.5% acceptable range. If inflation goes outside this range, the Central Bank must explain why.
New direction at the Central Bank
This meeting was notable because President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva chose four members.
The Central Bank works independently, but these appointments show a new direction. Lula’s influence will grow by 2025. That’s when he can appoint more members.
Critics had voiced concerns over high rates. But the cuts started in August 2023, showing a possible shift in policy. This move is significant as it may help the economy grow by making borrowing cheaper.
Lula’s appointees began their roles in mid-2023 and early 2024. They focus on different areas, from policy to supervision. Their participation indicates a broader approach to monetary policy.
Since the cutting cycle began, the Selic rate has dropped by 2.5%. Financial experts now foresee a 9% rate by end-2024.
This reduction could make loans more affordable, encouraging businesses and consumers to spend more.
The committee’s structure prevents tie votes, ensuring clear decisions. They meet every 45 days, with their next session in December 2023.
These meetings are crucial for setting financial policy. The outcomes are closely watched as they influence economic health.