RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Up for the fourth consecutive day, the dollar closed again at its highest nominal value since the creation of the real. On Thursday, February 20th, the USD closed the session at R$4.392, up 0.026 (+0.59 percent).
Marcelo Castro, of Terra Investments, says that the dollar is strong abroad and that Brazil is following the international trend, but the spot price now exceeds the amount that triggered the Central Bank last Thursday (R$4.3830) to inject US$1 billion via forex swap in the futures market.
“The market is forcing a situation for the Central Bank to go in with a cash injection”, he says.
Jefferson Rugik, of Correparti, says that the pressure also reflects a protective movement in NDF (Non-Deliverable Forward) in the market this Thursday with the strong dollar abroad as the main driver that beats its rivals and the emerging currencies linked to commodities.
According to Rugik, the weak Broad National Consumer Price Index – 15 (IPCA-15) and the release of compulsory strengthen the outlook for a poor economy in Brazil and one that does not take off.
Despite the strong devaluation of the Real, the Correparti executive believes that, as much of the increase comes from abroad, there are chances that the Central Bank will only monitor the trend, but it will not rule out a new intervention unless the appreciation stops.