According to the Focus Bulletin, released on Monday, 8, by the Central Bank, the country’s economy should suffer a retraction.
A week ago, the growth forecast was 1.41%. This week, the index was readjusted to 1.4%.
A month ago, the forecast was for GDP growth of 1.44%.
For 2023, the market indicates stagnation of the Brazilian economy at 1% (same value as the week before).
INFLATION
After five consecutive weeks of highs, the market foresees an easing in inflation in 2023.
After reaching 6.05% the previous week, the Focus indicates a drop to 6.02% in today’s bulletin.
For next year, the National Wide Consumer Price Index (IPCA), used by IBGE to measure inflation, indicates a reduction to 4.16% (from 4.18% in the previous week).
For 2025, there is a stagnation in the index at 4%.
The inflation target pursued by the Central Bank is 3.25% in 2023 and 3% in 2024 and 2025, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points down or up.
INTEREST
Concerning the basic interest rate, market analysts estimate that it will be 12.5% in 2023, the same level as the previous week.
Today, the Selic is at 13.75%.
For 2024 and 2025, analysts have maintained the projections of the previous weeks of a Selic of 10% and 9%, respectively.
However, for 2026, there is a slight increase (from 8.88% to 9%).
The exchange rate also remained stable, and the projection is that the dollar will end this year worth R$5.20.
In 2024, the value of the North American currency will be R$5.25 (stable concerning last week’s forecast)
With information from Revista Oeste
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