RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Mayor Marcelo Crivella has no popular support and is, in the words of a former adviser, “desperate”. Jair Bolsonaro has yet to get the party he founded, the Aliança, on its feet after leaving the Liberal Social Party (PSL) that elected him in 2018.
He is still to face a major test at the polls in November’s municipal elections in the city that is his electoral stronghold. This is the starting point of the convergence promoted between Rio de Janeiro’s Mayor and the President of the Republic.
The President assures he will not endorse any municipal candidacy, but in March this year two of his sons, Senator Flávio and City Councilor Carlos Bolsonaro, officially affiliated with the Republicanos, a party – linked to the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God – that has Crivella as its leading light.
“It is an honor to welcome Senator @FlavioBolsonaro and Councilman @CarlosBolsonaro to the Republicanos. I’m sure they’ll come to our party to add something to it. Congratulations and welcome. @jairbolsonaro”
– Marcelo Crivella (@MCrivella) March 27th, 2020
The Republicanos are also part of the so-called Centrão, a political bloc made up of small and medium-sized parties in the Chamber of Deputies with which the President has been trying to stitch together an agreement on governability.
Rio de Janeiro is the cradle of the Bolsonaro clan and was the stepping stone for the family’s political career. While still an Army captain, Bolsonaro was elected a city councilor in 1988. He was then elected a federal deputy, a position he won six times until he entered the presidential race.
His sons Flávio and Carlos also paved their political careers there. The former was a state deputy since 2003, until he was elected senator in 2018; thelatter has been a city councilor since 2000.
The signs of their rapprochement with the current Rio mayor are everywhere. On July 21st, for instance, Flávio joined Crivella in a live broadcast in which he referred to him as “my Mayor”. Although he did not discuss the elections, he mentioned the importance of an “alignment” with “a person experienced in politics”.
Both also criticized the press and their coverage of the coronavirus pandemic. “There are chaos worshippers. Media outlets that don’t give a damn about the right things. We react to the persecution of part of the press with hard work. I thank you and your father, who helped me enable flights from China carrying hundreds of ventilators and monitors. Our people are very grateful to the Federal Government,” said Crivella, who concluded by thanking “Flavio and [Jair] Bolsonaro, the great leader this country needs”.
In recent weeks, Crivella had also expressed his solidarity with Flávio in connection with the arrest of his former adviser, Fabrício de Queiroz, and the news about the investigations into an alleged salary kickback scheme in his cabinet while serving as a state deputy. The Mayor of Rio also began to relax his restrictions to combat the coronavirus pandemic, as the President stepped up his criticism of mayors and governors for their social distancing measures. In July, the Minister of Health’s daughter, General Eduardo Pazuello, was offered an upper management position in Rio Saúde, the city’s public health company.
What is at stake in this approach? Sociologist José Cláudio Souza Alves, a professor at the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRRJ) and one of the oldest researchers of militias, mentions the well-known links and approaches of the Bolsonaro family with these armed groups that operate in the city’s neighborhoods and favelas, particularly in its large western zone. The connection between Flávio and his former adviser Queiroz is in the Rio das Pedras favela, where the current senator collected over 70 percent of the votes in the last elections.
“There is a whole support structure for Bolsonaro. Crivella is trying to replicate a successful model from 2018 that hasn’t been dismantled, it remains strong,” the researcher explains. It is an electoral machine that, in addition to the alleged support of militias, relies on the full influence of evangelical institutions.
This double factor could make Crivella’s candidacy competitive, even though it starts the dispute with only 12 percent of voter intentions. This is what occurred with the current state governor, Wilson Witzel. The former judge was unknown, but he attached his name to Flávio Bolsonaro, vowed to shoot criminals “in the head” and took off in popularity – a phenomenon that did not happen only in Rio in 2018.
“In Rio’s west side and in several militia-controlled favelas, this game will be decisive. The Bolsonarist election machine is in full operation. This whole economy and markets situation not stopping during the pandemic means cash for the militia,” Souza says. He also explains that the militia acts “by intimidating voters, imposing candidates and controlling ballot boxes,” while restraining other candidates from campaigning in their areas. “The approach is a chess move. Bolsonaro may say he won’t support anyone, but there are sectors in Rio linked to him that are growing.”
The researcher believes both Bolsonaro and Crivella want to win electoral power in the 2022 elections, but this long-term task is harder than it may seem. According to political scientist Camila Rocha, a researcher at CEBRAP (Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning) who studies the Bolsonarist and conservative voting constituencies, there is despondency among those who bet on the current President in the last elections. She mentions a qualitative survey conducted jointly with sociologist Esther Solano who interviewed 27 Bolsonaro voters from the lower classes for up to three hours.
“Within the evangelical segment that Crivella represents, there is a very significant despondency with Jair Bolsoanaro’s stance in the pandemic, particularly among women. These are people who voted for him thinking that he would be the candidate who would protect the family and good customs, and who are shocked by his stance,” explains Rocha about the survey’s results.
Although the interviews were conducted in São Paulo, she believes that the survey’s findings could easily be replicated in Rio de Janeiro. She also believes that the other candidacies will be important in defining the electoral strength of a candidacy supported by Bolsonaro. “People say they are disappointed, but at the same time they say they would vote for him again for lack of an option.”
She explains that these despondent and disenchanted voters, but who would nevertheless vote for the President, are among the 30 percent who still support him, according to opinion polls.
The game in Rio is still muddled. First in the initial surveys is ex-Mayor Eduardo Paes (Democrats – DEM). Marcelo Freixo (Socialism and Liberty Party – PSOL) was in second place, but the current federal deputy aborted his candidacy and his party should now turn to state deputy Renata Souza.
Federal Deputy and a former Governor of Rio de Janeiro, Benedita da Silva is expected to run for the PT (Workers’ Party), while ex-Deputy Marta Rocha will run through an alliance between her party, the PDT (Democratic Labor Party) with the PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party) and Rede (Network, center to center-left party). Still on the sidelines is Bolsonarist Rodrigo Amorim, a PSL (Social Liberal Party) state deputy – one of those who broke Marielle Franco’s memorial street sign during the 2018 campaign – who promises to launch his candidacy.
A former Crivella adviser points out that in all his prior disputes for executive positions, the licensed bishop started off with 20 percent of the votes. Now he starts off with about half. Since taking office, he has blamed his predecessor Eduardo Paes for the lack of financial resources to run his electoral program.
In order to survive in power and prevent an impeachment, he has been handing over patronage positions to city Council parties. The Mayor who was elected pledging to take care of the people now calls on the Bolsonaro family in an attempt to survive. And the Presidential family, which surfed the wave of anti-politics, is increasingly associating with traditional politicians to keep the flame of Bolsonarism alight.
Source: El País