The effect in Brazil of the global economic improvement should be positive but limited, say economists

The higher-than-expected growth of the global economy should have a positive – albeit limited – effect in Brazil.

With China advancing more than initially projected, the tendency is for commodity prices to advance, which favors Brazil.

“China’s recovery is excellent news because the country is the largest destination for Brazilian exports,” says Alexandre Bassoli, chief economist at Apex Capital.

Analysts expect a rise in Brazil’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.8% this year.

However, the expectation of a warmer global scenario did not cause banks and consulting firms to promote major changes in their estimatives.

The director of macroeconomic research for Latin America at Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, points out that China should move mainly to the oil and copper markets.

Last year, the bank projected a 4.5% growth for the oriental country. Now, the estimate is a 5.5% growth.

Ramos considers, however, that China’s growth will not have the same impact in Brazil as in the past.

This is because, in the past, the country’s growth was based on investment in infrastructure, which demanded, for example, more iron ore, a commodity widely produced in Brazil.

Now, China is boosting its economy through domestic consumption.

“This type of Chinese growth helps Brazil but does not benefit Brazil as much as the model based on infrastructure,” says Ramos.

With information from O Estado de S. Paulo/Infomoney

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