RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Peru will achieve a fiscal deficit lower than the Latin American average over the next five years, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast LatinFocus predicts in its latest report for December 2021.
According to the report, Peru’s fiscal deficit will be 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022, 3.3% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024, 2.5% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026, while the Latin American average will be 4.8% in 2022, 4.2% in 2023, 3.8% in 2024, 3.5% in 2025, and 3.1% in 2026, the analysts estimate.
In addition, Peru will have a lower fiscal deficit this year than the world average (-4.7%), the United States (-6.6%), Japan (-5.3%), and China (-4.6%), but similar to the Eurozone (-4%), FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast LatinFocus analysts predicted.
In 2023, Peru will also have a budget deficit lower than the global average (-3.8%), the United States (-4.9%), China (-4.5%), and Japan (-4.2%), but higher than that of the Eurozone (-2.7%), they predicted.
2022 AND 2023
This year, Peru will have the fifth-lowest fiscal deficit in the region, at 4% of GDP, after Ecuador (-0.8%), Mexico (-3.1%), Paraguay (-3.2%), and Uruguay (-3.9%), FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast LatinFocus estimates in its latest December 2021 report.
This is followed by fiscal deficits in Chile (-4.1%), Argentina (-4.3%), Colombia (-6.4%), Brazil (-6.8%) and Bolivia (-6.8%).
In 2023, Peru will have the fourth lowest budget deficit in Latin America, at 3.3% of GDP, along with Chile (-3.3%), after the budget deficits of Paraguay (-2.2%), Mexico (-2.9%), and Uruguay (-3.2%), he predicted.
This is followed by budget deficits in Argentina (-3.6%), Colombia (-4.5%), Bolivia (-5.5%) and Brazil (-6.3%).
Meanwhile, Ecuador will run a budget surplus of 0.6% of GDP in 2023.
2024 AND 2025
In the Latin American fiscal balance for 2024, Peru will have the third-lowest fiscal deficit, along with Mexico (both -2.7% of GDP), after fiscal deficits in Paraguay (-1.9%), and Chile (-2.6%), FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast LatinFocus analysts forecast.
They are followed by Uruguay (-2.8%), Argentina (-2.9%), Colombia (-3.4%), Bolivia (-5%) and Brazil (-5.8%).
While Ecuador will have a budget surplus of 0.7% of GDP in 2024.
In the fiscal balance for 2025, Peru will have the fourth-lowest budgetary deficit in the region, along with Mexico, at 2.5% of GDP each, after the fiscal deficits of Paraguay (-1.7%), Chile (-2%), and Argentina (-2.4%), they estimated.
This is followed by the budget deficits of Uruguay (-2.6%), Colombia (-3.1%), Bolivia (-4.5%), and Brazil (-5.3%).
Meanwhile, Ecuador will have a budget surplus of 0.7% of GDP in 2025.
2026
In the 2026 fiscal balance, Peru will have the fourth-lowest fiscal deficit in Latin America, at 2.3% of GDP, after the fiscal deficits of Chile (-1.4%), Paraguay (-1.5%), and Argentina (-1.8%), according to the forecast.
This is followed by Mexico (-2.4%), Uruguay (-2.5%), Colombia (-2.9%), Bolivia (-4.1%) and Brazil (-4.8%) with budget deficits.
Ecuador will run a fiscal surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2026, analysts said in their latest report for December 2021.