RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Although each case has its own institutional, social, economic and political characteristics, in general terms we can speak of it as the year of pending reforms.
In addition to Brazil, which faces an agenda that will complement the welfare reform passed last year, the countries in the region are discussing complex agendas and, in many cases, in adverse contexts marked by waves of protest and the low popularity of their rulers.
Below is a summary of the challenges:
Colombia
The turn of the year for President Iván Duque took place in an unfavorable scenario, with the challenge of establishing governance. The current president is facing the need to reform a government marked by low popularity, street protests and serious security threats in Colombia. The lack of a majority in Congress, with a rising opposition, aggravates this scenario.
In this context, President Duque’s main bet to face the popularity crisis was to make his cabinet reform a reality. This new cabinet will be challenged to carry out major reforms in the health, justice, labor (when there is agreement at the negotiating tables), political, referendum and welfare sectors.
The only way to ensure that these initiatives have a future is to convene parties to join the government in order to secure the required majorities.
Therefore, Duque’s current cabinet faces two major challenges: to create agreements with the opposition (and his own party), which would give him the green light to move forward with major reforms, and at the same time rebuild ties with Colombian society.
Mexico
Andrés Manuel López Obrador‘s government started the year with the challenge of completing pending reforms and creating a new “Fourth Transformation” model based on the pillars of austerity, transparency, the fight against corruption and assistance to the underprivileged.
Despite choosing extensive coordination between the Federal Government and Congress to achieve the goal, the fact is that even with a majority in Parliament, AMLO’s party National Regeneration Movement (Morena) includes members who do not agree on some points and approaches, which hinders the progress of certain negotiations.
In this context, although the president has made several calls to his party colleagues to join the transformation and favor the general interest of the country over their personal interests, the truth is that his government will be forced to negotiate if it intends to achieve the so-called new model.
Argentina
The Argentinian case presents a particular advantage, which is the onset of a new government, in the hands of Alberto Fernández. But it also presents a particular problem: the economic-financial imbalance, which affects the productive sector and has tremendous social consequences.
In this sense, the country’s main challenge is to negotiate a convenient restructuring of its foreign debt in order to advance the national budget and the social reforms deemed necessary to start boosting the economy.
Although the Fernandez government coalition parties have the majority in both legislative houses needed to press ahead with the necessary reforms, the current social and economic scenario puts pressure on Argentinian policy to achieve results quickly.
Chile
The protests that began in October 2019 raised questions about the Chilean model and its economic triumphalism. In addition to the many social, economic and security reforms promised by Sebastián Piñera‘s government, the President has called on citizens to decide in April if they want a new Constitution and if so, how it should be constructed.
In this respect, the plebiscite is presented as a crucial event that will mark the future of the country. Although it is hoped that a “yes” vote will be reached and a constituent body established to develop a new legal system, the CADEM Market researcher studies show that there is still a considerable number of people who would vote “no” to the new Constitution.
As for the other reforms (social, security and anti-abuse), the Chilean Parliament will be a key element in achieving them. In this context, authorities are seeking consensus on these reforms to face a number of medium-term challenges.
Furthermore, the consequences of the social crisis that occurred last year are still affecting the country, which must be monitored by Chilean politics due to the high potential for imbalance it displayed in 2019.
That said, the upcoming scenario for Chile could be an opportunity to lead a transition to a fairer society with greater opportunities, or it could also lead to the failure of the current government, with a mandate until 2022.
Peru
Last year was marked by the controversial dissolution of the National Congress by President Martín Vizcarra, who justified his actions as part of the fight against corruption in the country. In this context, 2020 started with an extremely important event: the parliamentary elections.
The new Congress is scheduled to take office in March. The new Congress – with a 1-year and 4-month term and where there are nine different blocks without a majority – will have to negotiate internally and with the Executive branch, which is also undergoing changes after replacement of members of the cabinet with connections to the corrupt Brazilian construction company Odebrecht.
The challenges outlined above add to the economic slowdown expected in 2020, which is why it will be crucial to closely follow issues such as the bill proposing a 12-hour workday on four days a week, and three days off for micro-companies.
Decisive year
At both national and regional levels, we observe the same challenge and demand from society, concerning the progression of certain reforms. We also observe difficulties in the relationship between the Legislative and the Executive branches, and the link between politics and citizenship.
It is clear that in all these countries there are social demands, so far unsatisfied. The extent to which the demands are met is what will determine the future of the governments of Colombia, Mexico, Chile, Argentina, and Peru.
The way these governments act in 2020 will be the key to the future that awaits the region in 2021 when there will be parliamentary elections in Mexico and Argentina, and presidential elections in Peru and Chile.
Source: Infomoney