RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Plaza de Mayo of Buenos Aires, the stage of Argentina’s political memory, experienced a very busy Sunday night. Dozens of workers removed the railing that had been dividing it since the 2001 uprisings, protecting the Rosada House (the government’s headquarters) from demonstrations.
Alberto Fernández, who yesterday replaced Mauricio Macri as president, called for the removal of the bars so that the square could serve to “end divisions and unite Argentina”.
There will be no more bars, just like political spring: Fernández will be handed a country that has been in recession for two years and has an urgent need to renegotiate a foreign debt that has become unpayable.
The demonstrations will now reach the gates of the government headquarters, where a stage was set for the party after the inauguration. Argentina will thus begin a new stage, marked by the return of Peronism to power – which is not well regarded by the government of neighboring Brazil. Jair Bolsonaro, who had already lamented Fernández’s election, did not attend the inauguration.
He decided to send his vice-president, Hamilton Mourão, as a last-minute representative, in a “political gesture,” according to the vice-president himself. This is the first time in 16 years that a Brazilian president does not honor the change of command in the neighboring country.
When Fernández was handed the command by Mauricio Macri, four difficult months of transition were over. The government’s defeat in August’s primary elections had forced a potentially powerless Macri to rule during the economic crisis that hurt the end of his term.
On October 27th, the ballot boxes ratified Fernández’s victory in the first round. The government announced at the time that it would be unable to meet its debt payments to private bondholders and to the International Monetary Fund, and it further imposed a currency tourniquet to stop the Central Bank’s reserves from being drained.
Driven by the repayment calendar, Fernández will have less than a semester to deal with the debt issue and only a few weeks to calm the anxiety of his voters, who need quick solutions to the loss of purchasing power of their wages and inflation, which this year will exceed 55 percent.
The man chosen to solve the legacy is Martín Guzmán, a disciple of Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz, who Fernández recalled from Columbia University (New York). Guzmán, 37, is an expert in foreign debt renegotiation proceedings, but his political experience is non-existent. In November, the economist introduced a plan for Argentina’s debt to the United Nations.
He said at the time that Buenos Aires should not pay capital and interest until 2022; avoid new IMF loans; and neutralize any possibility of default. During the grace period, Argentina will reorder its accounts to make the debt “sustainable” in the medium term.
Fernández will face a weakened economic situation after two consecutive years of declining GDP (ECLAC estimates -3 percent for 2019, the worst in the region after Venezuela and Nicaragua) and an increase of 40 percent in poverty, the highest in almost 20 years.
The new president will hasten the proclamation of an “economic emergency,” a formula that will allow him to make structural changes by decree without going through Congress. To fight inflation, he will try to reach a broad agreement in which trade unionists and entrepreneurs will be involved, the former willing to moderate their wage demands; and the latter, price increases.
Congress will be another area of conflict. There, Fernández will rely on Cristina Kirchner‘s influence, who as vice-president will be in charge of the Senate. Kirchner has built up a support network that will allow her to control the Upper House unhindered. Her son, Congressman Máximo Kirchner, will lead the governing bloc in the Lower House.
The ex-president will be someone worth paying attention to during the new government. Much repudiated as well as much loved, the development of the judicial cases accusing her of corruption will be a test of the autonomy of the country’s courts.
Macri’s long farewell
Meanwhile, Macri said goodbye in slow motion. On Thursday, he made a very optimistic assessment of his four years as president in a recorded message that was broadcast on national radio and television.
For 40 minutes, he confined self-criticism to economic performance and described what he believes to be the achievements of his administration; Argentina’s integration into the world, stronger institutions, a more independent court system, energy improvement, and reliable official statistics.
Two days later, he went on stage in Plaza de Mayo to say goodbye to his supporters. To the rhythm of Carlos Vives’ ‘Volví a Nacer’ (“I’m Reborn”), thousands of people sang “You were the breath and hope was so great” moments before Macri appeared with his wife, Juliana Awada, and his candidate for vice president, former Kirchnerist Miguel Ángel Pichetto.
“Thank you, thank you, thank you,” repeated the president several times, moved to tears. “This heart is already more yours than mine,” he told the crowd, much smaller than in previous events like the one held on July 9th avenue days before the elections.
Macri lamented the alleged “obstacles” posed by Peronism during his term in office and sent a message to his successor: “You can be sure that after a long time you will find a constructive rather than destructive opposition. You will find a firm and calm opposition that will defend democracy, institutional quality, and our freedoms’.
On the same night, Macri published a video called ‘Moments’ on social media in which he showed his most intimate side. “There is time for ambitions. For 2021, for 2023…”, he says in the documentary, recorded in close-ups that seek to highlight the emotion behind the message. In the video, he predicts a difficult future for the Fernández coalition because of the multiple internal currents that have come together to support his candidacy.
“When so many get together before a celebration, it is difficult for the celebration to succeed. The DJ needs to be very good,” he said.
Despite his words, Macri is today the most affected by divisions, after the abandonment of three national deputies and the rupture of his party bloc in the province of Buenos Aires, the largest and most populated in the country.
The president’s last public event before handing over command was on Sunday in Luján. He attended a mass for peace in front of the city’s basilica where Macri and Fernández embraced each other in an unprecedented gesture of harmony.
As of Tuesday, one will see whether this is more than just a photo op.
Source: El Pais