RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC), who has experienced a world war, the dictatorship, and exile, seems well adjusted to seclusion in his São Paulo home. About to turn 89, the coronavirus is a very serious threat to him. For two months he has only been connected with his children and grandchildren by phone.
A sociologist and professor, he remains a classic intellectual, although he also sends messages on Twitter. On Friday morning, May 29th, he discussed President Jair Bolsonaro, the military, the pandemic, and the economy in an interview with EL PAÍS Brasil, broadcast live. The ex-president sees Brazilian democracy attacked from within itself, yet he perceives a reaction. He himself has just signed a manifesto in favor of democracy produced by the ‘Estamos Juntos’ (We Are Together) movement that unites intellectuals, artists, and politicians from different parties.
During the pandemic, Fernando Henrique chose his side clearly in the dichotomy in which Brazilian politics operates. “Between economy and life, on which side am I? I am on the side of life. There are people who are on the market’s side. We’ll try to make the two compatible and prepare ourselves for what comes next,” he says.
Cardoso – honorary president of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), the fourth-largest congressional group with 31 deputies – is concerned, but he does not believe Brazil is at a point of no return. Not at this moment. He is aware of disturbing signals, but also of institutions that react to the attacks. The man who held the presidency between 1995 and 2002 clearly expresses his disgust with Bolsonaro: “The President wants more powers, as if he didn’t have enough. What he needs to do is exercise the power he has,” he answers from his computer. Behind him, a bookcase filled with books and a tiny plastic Queen Elizabeth II waving.
Despite the increasing noise about a potential military intervention in Brazil, and the repeated denials of Ministers coming from the Armed Forces, Cardoso points out that at this moment he perceives no risks. But he cautions after recalling that he is the son of a general and grandson of a marshal. “I don’t think the military wants to take power at this time, a coup. But how do democracies die? It doesn’t have to be a military coup. The President himself can take on extraordinary powers. And he can take them. Is there any chance that it will happen? I’d say there’s no chance under the current conditions in Brazil. Could there be attempts in that direction? There may be”. This means, therefore, being alert. “One can not allow democracy to be eroded from within.” That’s why he considers it vital to raise one’s voice when someone crosses the line.
“When some military officers speak it is always to defend the Constitution. They are not openly supporting what some Ministers and often the President himself say. I think that’s the moment when one has to speak clearly”.
“Nobody gives you money if they think you’re not moving forward. Something is starting to happen in Brazil that didn’t happen before: they’re starting to think that we can’t be trusted.”
But it’s not just about what the members of the government who come from the Armed Forces say and don’t say. It is also their growing presence in government bodies of all kinds, an unprecedented move since the end of the dictatorship in 1985. “When a government starts appointing many military officers it’s because it’s fragile”, he points out.
And in the case of Bolsonaro, a reserve captain, because it is in the Armed Forces that he finds his contacts network, but “the result is that the government will have a military face. And those accountable for the government’s mistakes will be the military, whether they wanted to or not”. This includes what will happen in the coronavirus pandemic. “Not at this moment, but later, yes.” A general runs the Ministry of Health temporarily after the President dismissed his two predecessors.
Cardoso recalls something that a short time ago seemed needless to stress. Democracy can not be taken for granted, it must be taken care of as if it were a plant and defended on a daily basis. Bolsonaro’s Brazil is the scene of repeated attacks on the separation of powers, its Ministers, his sons and followers. Harassment of the press is increasingly frequent. And the President himself, a man nostalgic of the dictatorship, took part in several rallies calling for “military intervention”. The warnings of ex-president Cardoso are calm, unstringent: “There are several signs here, to put it mildly, that are disturbing”.
In his opinion, the current President is not up to his task: “We still have a democracy. It’s being torn apart, attacked. Is it the President’s responsibility to watch over democracy? Yes. Is he watching over it? No. He’s saying things that are inappropriate for the Head of State.”
Nevertheless, Cardoso considers that the situation is not ripe for an impeachment, which, he stresses, “cannot be a project of the opposition”. He recalls that Bolsonaro keeps a strong base, in which there are also many fanatics.
FHC, who has so many contacts around the world, is aware of how the image of his homeland has deteriorated in recent times, a fact that Bolsonaro’s approach to tackling the pandemic has worsened. That will be a problem for reactivating the economy, for which he sees international cooperation as imperative. It will not be easy. “Nobody gives you money if you think you are not moving forward. Something is starting to happen in Brazil that did not happen before: they are beginning to think that we are not reliable”.
The horizon is gloomy: “After a while, the pandemic will no longer exist, but unemployment and lack of economic growth. And social unrest may occur. We need to prepare ourselves to live with it, not to contain it”.
On the economic front, he considers that the revenue sources that Minister Paulo Guedes was counting on, no longer serve this situation. “He had a direction, but the crisis hit him. His ideas are now incorrect”.
Although he longs to travel and eat in his neighborhood’s restaurants, he says he will only leave home when authorities and health recommendations allow.
Read below some of the main excerpts of the interview, and watch the full interview on EL PAÍS Brasil’s YouTube channel (in Portuguese).
Bolsonaro’s impeachment
Impeachment always leaves a mark on institutions, on people’s culture. We have had two impeachments recently. One more is cumbersome. Impeachment can not be a project of the opposition. I have no reason to defend President Jair Bolsonaro. I didn’t vote for him, I’m against him, and he knows it. He wanted to shoot me when I was president…
Is Brazilian democracy dying?
I hope not. We have a very dynamic society, and a very free press, which tells things. It reacts, it has a way of reacting to attacks. In a dictatorship, there’s no way to do this, they’ll arrest you. I was exiled, I lost my title. It’s difficult, it’s another situation. I was in Spain during those difficult times, that’s another situation. It doesn’t mean we don’t have to view this with concern, it could be enough.
If society, if the leaders and institutions react, things are going badly, if you just let the impulse prevail, things are going badly. Whatever the intention in power may be. In the past, in 1964, there was a struggle between the US and the USSR, and there were people against that reality. Imagine if Marshal Castello Branco wanted a dictatorship? Never. But things are coming together. One must pay attention and stop. Bolsonaro complains about the Minister who talked about the cabinet meeting [Sérgio Moro] and doesn’t complain about the nonsense of the meeting. I hope we make it to the election. I hope so. One can not accept the erosion of democracy from within, and from outside. One must defend the Constitution.
Fight against unreal enemies, like in the US
The issue in Brazil, as it is somewhat in the US, is one of delay. Fighting enemies that are not real. The Earth is flat. What is that! Nonsense. Ideological inspiration, from leaders who are gurus, who have nothing to do with science. That’s delay. But he was elected. I may think it was a mistake. But not another one. He has a support base. Better for the future, in terms of Brazil’s history, to convince the people to vote better.
Reaction in defense of democracy
A reaction is starting to take place. The ABI [Brazilian Press Association] protests, organized sectors protest. Organizations, newspaper editorials. Why didn’t we react? We have coronavirus. It’s hard to mobilize people when you’re not afraid.
That explains it, but it doesn’t justify it. Everyone who has political accountability has to speak up. Parties in Brazil are very fragmented and no longer induce public behavior. They don’t control public opinion. Courts saying, press saying.
Military and the Constitution
I’ve never seen a military officer speak against the Constitution. When some military officers speak they find a way to defend it. They’re not openly endorsing what some Ministers and the President himself often say. I think that at this time it is necessary talk, say things clearly. “You can’t, you’re wrong to go into fields of responsibility that aren’t yours. You need to keep freedom of the press. What’s more, the economy is suffering the consequences of all that. The world has changed and above all the world is afraid of what’s happening here. The uncertainty. Taking a direction is required. The President’s main job is to set a direction. Here there’s doubts on both counts.
Too many military officers in the government, too little power
When a government starts appointing many military officers, it’s because the government is weak. I saw that in Chile, with President Allende. He appointed many military officers to pretend he had power. Here it’s not so much to pretend he has power, but because they’re the ones he knows. Risks? Military officers in Brazil have no sense of the market. Businesses, market, profit. Nor corruption, they don’t like it. But if they get used to the government’s favors. Who doesn’t like it? They have cars, they have homes, they have salaries, they double their salaries.
Little by little an automatic identity is created, it happens. He appoints these people because he has little support. They are not going there to benefit, they are going there to serve the country. Motivation may be anything. The result is that the government will have a military face. And the military will be accountable for the government’s mistakes, whether they like it or not.
They’ve made a certain effort to say – we are here reiterating that the military forces serve the state, the government. We have to reiterate this notion, so that it can be instilled in Brazilian culture. That the military are the defense body of the state institutions.
Are military officers accountable for the pandemic?
Not right now, but later they will be. It’s not good for them. There’s too many generals. I have nothing against generals. One or the other because they have technical training for that… Many generals [in the Government] hurt the Armed Forces, gives this sense of military control. It is incompatible with modern, contemporary times, with Brazilian institutions. The military will always have strength, power.
Paulo Guedes’ wrong ideas for the moment
The Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, has a direction. But his direction has run into a crisis. His ideas are wrong for the moment, he can’t do it. He’s gotten a little lost. He should have changed it by now to make it work. In politics, speaking to people’s hearts and minds is necessary. To have feeling, people need to believe in it. Right now the path of belief is missing. I understand the current President’s affliction, as I did, of wanting to move faster. But that increases the death toll. Between economy and life, which side am I on? I’m on the side of life. There are people who take the market’s side. Let’s try to make he two compatible, and prepare what comes next.
Lack of contemporary leadership in Brazil
Nobody can speak out today because they’re afraid to, they’re home, they’re afraid of the pandemic. After tomorrow there is no pandemic, but there is unemployment, and lack of economic growth. And there may also be social unrest. We need to prepare ourselves to live with it, not to restrain it. The authoritarian trend will want to restrain it. But the democrats, we are not going to restrain, we are going to direct it to one side, to persuade, to win together. The leader who wants to win alone is wrong. He wins nothing. He only wins through the sword.
He doesn’t have the sword yet; I hope he never does. Because if he has a sword, he will sever heads. And if he doesn’t have a sword, he has to earn heads. Brazil is lacking leadership. And not only Brazil, it’s scarce in the world. And another fact. It has to be contemporary leadership in the world. The world is scientific, technological. And the world will be of science and technology, whether we like it or not.
The Minimum state vs. Strong state after pandemic theory
This must change [in the head of Brazilian society]. It depends on the action, if it is put in a strong and convincing way. When the Single Health System (SUS) was proposed, we endorsed it. It is important, it provides assistance to those who have no money. It is proving its worth now. The problem is it’s underfunded. Now we know that, [but] will we know it later? Men have memory but they also forget. I don’t want them to forget. They’ll talk about the pandemic if you keep talking about it. And not the pandemic, but talk about poverty and inequality. You have to do social market economy. The government doesn’t have to be big or small. It has to work. The market does not dispense with regulation. In this time of crisis, everyone is asking for a government… money, money.
From emergency aid to permanent basic income
The need has arisen. It is an important step. Taxes may need to be raised. The one who had the fixed idea [about universal income] was Deputy Eduardo Suplicy. Things were in order after families put their children in school. The Bolsa Família (Family Grant) idea was born in my government. Then there was the ‘Bolsa Escola’ (School Grant), then there was the ‘Bolsa Saúde’ (Health Grant). Then Lula’s government bundled it all together and turned it into Bolsa Família, and turned it into a political instrument. It’s done. And you think anyone will take it away? No, because it makes social sense. In the world of the future, with an economy that is technical, you will have to help. You need to get money from the people who have the most.
Source: El País