RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – It is now almost 50 days since the first case of coronavirus was confirmed in Brazil. However, the fight against Covid-19 is only just beginning.
Both the Ministry of Health and experts expect the situation to worsen further by June, and the most optimistic estimates project the disease to be under control by August.
Some ten days ago, the governor of São Paulo, João Dória, projected a return to normality “who knows in August”. Governor Wilson Witzel, on the other hand, spoke about preparing for “a six-month crisis” in Rio de Janeiro.
In Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema changed his position in recent weeks and began to talk about easing social isolation, but his health secretary advised yesterday that “one can not think about normal life before June”.
The dates may not add up, but the message is clear: things will take time to get back to normal. As announced last week, the Ministry of Health projects the uncontrolled acceleration of Covid-19 during the month of May, which would lead to a peak of contamination in early June. The decrease in cases would begin two weeks later.
The number of deaths and infections will depend essentially on the social distancing model to be implemented throughout the country, but the Ministry believes that the length of the outbreak will be similar with or without extended quarantine.
According to this Ministry of Health projection, the novel coronavirus pandemic will not be under control until the first week of August. The deadlines roughly coincide with what Minister Luiz Henrique Mandetta had said as recently as March 17th.
“In August or September we should be getting back on track, as long as the immunity of more than 50 percent of the population is achieved,” Mandetta, who is also a doctor, said at the time.
Experts consider similar dates, but urge caution: Projections are not certainties.
“The decline may occur in June, but for now, it’s based on speculation. The situation has not yet been completely outlined in Brazil,” warns infectologist Marcos Boulos, of São Paulo’s Superintendence of Endemic Control (SUCEN).
“The progression of the disease should reach a plateau in the month of June, and then start to decline”, stresses infectologist Jean Gorinchteyn, physician of the Emílio Ribas Infectology Institute in São Paulo.
“The major problem would be to open doors, to relax quarantine because in this case many people would get sick and many people would die in the next two months”, cautions Gorinchteyn.
Boulos argues that social inequality and the advent of Covid-19 to the peripheries of large cities could rattle projections. “We can hope that in June everything will start to get better, we’ll see. But it’s just hope right now.”
Source: UOL