RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), measured by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), dropped 7.6 points between February and March. With the slump, the indicator reached 80.2 points on a scale of zero to 200 points, its lowest since January 2017 (78.3 points).
The Current Situation Index, which measures confidence in the present, dropped 4.8 points to 76.1 points, its lowest level since July 2019 (75.6 points). The Expectations Index, which measures assessments over the future, dropped 9.3 points to 83.9 points, its lowest level since December 2016 (81.6 points).
According to FGV researcher Viviane Seda Bittencourt, the drop in confidence had already tumbled in the previous two months. The accumulated loss in 2020 amounts to 11.4 points.
However, under the impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic, the downturn has worsened. “Although two-thirds of the data collection for this issue occurred before the restriction measures, a significant impact on projections can be noted”.
“The capital recording the greatest drop in confidence was Rio de Janeiro, while São Paulo has already felt the worsening of the current situation, possibly due to the higher number of cases and its vast industrial base. The scenario for the coming months is troubling, with high economic and social impacts,” she said.
In her opinion, although it is difficult to see “any resumption of confidence in the foreseeable future, we hope that the success of the isolation measures will stop the spread of the virus and at least contain part of the discouragement that will result from the drop in Gross Domestic Product and the increase in unemployment”.