RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Brazil will increase its coffee harvest by 12% this year to 53.4 million 60-kilo bags, despite “adverse” weather conditions, which continue to negatively impact forecasts, according to estimates released Thursday, May 19, by the Government.
However, the expected harvest for 2022 will be reduced by 15.3% compared to 2020, according to the National Supply Company (Conab).
One of the world’s largest grain exporters, coffee production in Brazil will be impacted by “adverse weather”. Last year, the country went through periods that alternated between droughts and frosts that continue to affect the harvest.
“Recovery is limited, as last year’s drought and frosts, especially in the states of Minas Gerais, Paraná, and São Paulo, weakened the plants, influencing the productive performance of the coffee crops,” said Conab president Guilherme Ribeiro.
Arabica coffee should be hit the hardest since its production is concentrated in these three regions, which are the hardest hit by low temperatures and water shortages.
Despite this, Conab projects a “recovery” concerning the immediately preceding harvest and estimates that 35.7 million 60-kilo bags of this specialty will be harvested.
“However, a higher production potential was expected since 2022 is a positive biennial cycle. Compared to the 2020 crop, a reduction of 23.6% is expected,” Ribeiro said.
As for the grain cultivation area for this year, Conab foresees an increase of 1.9% compared to 2021, up to 2.24 million hectares cultivated.
In its report, the entity pointed out that it also expects a “restricted recovery” of Brazilian coffee exports, which fell 10.8% in the first four months of 2022 compared to the same period last year.
Despite the drops in production, global demand for the bean should continue to grow in the coming months. However, it could be affected by the war in Ukraine, which caused the prices of raw materials, including coffee, to soar in several parts of the world, according to Conab.
“The war conflict in Eastern Europe intensified global inflation, threatening the demand for coffee and favoring the migration of investors to other commodities with a greater prospect of appreciation,” Ribeiro said.
With information from EFE