Bolivia’s bond market has seen unexpected growth, stunning investors worldwide. The trend started in El Salvador and spread across Latin America, now including Bolivia.
Despite not undergoing economic reforms like its neighbors, Bolivia’s bonds have soared, delivering a 19% return in 2024.
This performance has drawn attention from Bloomberg’s emerging market index.
Investors like Edwin Gutierrez from Abrdn Plc. and Ricardo Penfold from Seaport Global find this rise hard to explain.
Unlike Argentina, Ecuador, and Venezuela, Bolivia sticks to its traditional economic strategies, which have seen reforms.
Argentina’s plan to stop importing gas from Bolivia soon might worsen Bolivia’s dollar shortage and deplete its central bank reserves.
Yet, Bolivia’s bonds, maturing in 2028 and 2030, have increased in value.
Political changes have contributed to this surge, including a court ruling preventing former president Evo Morales from running in the 2025 elections and a government plan to address dollar scarcity.
Experts like Pilar Navarro from EMFI Group Ltd. and Sebastián Vargas from Barclays Capital Inc. believe Bolivia can manage its debt service.
They even suggest Bolivia might issue up to $1,000 million in green bonds to boost its lithium industry.
Despite these optimistic views, Bolivia’s economic approach faces challenges, including fiscal deficits and a risky monetary peg.
Bolivia’s bond market success raises doubts about its economic stability.
As Bolivia moves forward, the global financial community remains vigilant, considering the impact of this surprising performance on the broader emerging market landscape.