A Week of Decisive Data in Latin American Markets
This coming week, Latin American markets are intently observing crucial economic and political events, with a key focus on Argentina’s presidential election runoff.
Analysts anticipate economic uncertainty in Argentina post-election, no matter the winner.
Mexico’s spotlight is on the upcoming monthly data and revised third-quarter GDP figures. These are expected to show increased activity and domestic demand.
According to analysts, Mexico’s central bank might keep interest rates stable, with potential reductions next year.
Chile is set to release third-quarter GDP data. It’s likely to indicate economic stabilization after last year’s significant downturn.
Economists predict a gradual recovery beginning in 2024.
In Peru, the GDP for the third quarter is expected to continue its downward trend, suggesting a sustained recession.
Key events for the week include:
Argentina
On November 22, the September economic activity index will be released. A slight contraction is expected after two months of growth.
This could balance the third quarter’s 2.8% increase, avoiding a technical recession but not guaranteeing year-long expansion.
Chile
November 20 will see the publication of the third-quarter GDP. Dupita and Hernández estimate a 0.2% year-over-year increase, showing signs of stabilization.
The recovery is expected to pick up in 2024 slowly.
Mexico
September’s retail sales data, due on November 22, are likely to show an increase.
This rise is supported by higher household incomes and consumption, driven by employment and wage growth.
The economy faces challenges like tight monetary conditions and shifts in spending patterns.
The mid-November inflation data, expected on November 23, should remain close to the previous level.
Economists predict a stable inflation rate in the fourth quarter despite being above the central bank’s target.
November 23 will also bring the minutes from the central bank’s November policy meeting. These minutes will provide insights into the decision to maintain the benchmark rate.
They are expected to confirm a cautious approach by the central bank.
On November 24, economic activity data for September will be released. A continued upward trend is expected, potentially reaching the highest level since 1993.
However, concerns like tight financial conditions and the risk of a U.S. recession loom.
The same day, the final third-quarter GDP figures will be out. A slight downward revision to 3.2% from an initial 3.3% year-over-year growth is expected.
Peru
Due on November 23, the third-quarter GDP figures are predicted to show a further decline.
This continued drop would confirm Peru’s ongoing recession. The construction sector is expected to be the main drag on the economy.
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