If there is one thing that farmers in Mato Grosso, Brazil’s main soybean-producing state, cannot complain about, it is the lack of rainfall due to a third La Niña year.
On the contrary, the moisture inputs were constant since the beginning of a campaign that aims to leave its mark on the records, with a historical record for the oilseed not only in the South American country but also worldwide, with more than 150 million tonnes.
However, the persistence of rainfall when fields have crops ready to be lifted is delaying harvesting beyond what is prudent.
In addition, these delays impact the logistics chain, with ships waiting at ports for cargo that do not arrive.
“Mato Grosso always receives large volumes of rain in January and February. It is normal for the second month of the year to have accumulations of between 200 and 300 millimeters. These rainfalls are usually interspersed with intense sunshine and heat, making harvesting possible”, said Daniele Siqueira, Brazilian consulting firm AgRural’s market analyst, to La Nacion.
“However, sunny intervals are rare lately, and temperatures are lower than normal. Therefore, harvesting is delayed. There are still no losses in productivity or quality. Still, they could occur if the rains continue according to the current pattern”, she continued.
Yesterday the National Supply Company (Conab), under the Ministry of Agrarian Development of Brazil, surveyed the soybean harvest progress in 8.9% of the suitable area, compared to 5.2% of the previous week and 16.8% of the same time in 2022.
The agency also noted the progress of the harvest in Mato Grosso in 25.6% of the area, far from the 42.1% of a year ago.
According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics, in the five previous years, the harvest in Mato Grosso averaged 31.93% at this time of the year.
“There is still no concern about eventual losses in production as a result of the delay in the harvest because, in addition, this campaign registers a general delay of between 2 and 3 weeks. And although some places are losing quality in Mato Grosso due to the rains that fall daily, even so, it is not considered a problem since it is something that usually happens every year,” explained Vlamir Brandalizze, a specialist in the grain market of Brandalizze Consulting.
He added that in terms of productivity, better-than-expected results are being seen.
“In the region of Sorriso, in Mato Grosso, 43.8% of the area was harvested, and the average yield is 3950 kilos per hectare, against an expectation of 3700 kilos or less for this first half of the work,” he highlighted.
Conab and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will publish their new monthly agricultural estimates tomorrow.
It could modify their expectations for Brazilian soybean production in 2022/2023, which were placed at 152.71 and 153 million tonnes in January, respectively.
According to the Brazilian agency’s assessment, the previous season yielded a crop of 125.55 million tonnes of the oilseed.
LOGISTICS WITH DELAYS
The delay in the exit of grains from the fields is affecting the export logistics chain in the world’s main soybean supplier.
“The delay in the loading of ships is already a reality. Brazil exported little soybean in January and tended to dispatch relatively little merchandise in the first half of February due to the slowdown in the harvest, not only in Mato Grosso but also in Paraná. In this southern state, the delay is due to the lengthening of the crop cycle, which was hindered by excessive rainfall and low temperatures between October and November”, explained Siqueira.
For Brandalizze what is happening with the slow progress of the harvest has been affecting deliveries at ports since early February, “with a slow pace of exports, which copies the calm seen in January, when only 851,900 tonnes were shipped, compared to 2,452,100 tonnes in the first month of 2022″.
However, he added that shipments should normalize as of February 20, and “everything points to March having a historical record of exports, the same as April and May, with a trend of historical high marks that would continue until June or July”.
Brandalizze acknowledged that delays in loading ships in Brazilian ports allow US exporters to be more active than usual for this time of the year.
And as for the marketing of expected production in Brazil, he acknowledged that at approximately 33%, it is one of the lowest historical volumes, in contrast to last year’s figure of over 50% and compared to a normal average of 48-50%.
SLOW SAFRINHA
The so-called safrinha is the second of the three crops into which corn production in Brazil is divided.
It accounts for just over 76% of the total supply of Brazilian coarse grains.
In general, its planting is done on the land released by soybeans.
Therefore, delays in the oilseed harvest are beginning to delay the granin sowing.
“The delay in planting the second corn crop is not so great in Mato Grosso. According to AgRural figures, 22% of the area had been covered up to last Thursday, against 41% at the same time last year and 25% in the average of the last five years. If the weather improves in February, planting can be done within the ideal window (until the end of February). There will be no major problems, even if planting is concentrated in a short period,” said Siqueira.
But he warned that the concern goes through Paraná, where only 2% of the area was planted, against 16% of 2022 for the same date and 10% average.
“If the delay persists, we will have a later harvest in that state, which leaves the crops more susceptible to losses due to frost and drought,” he explained.
In Brandalizze’s opinion, second crop corn normally has until the first week of March to be planted within the normal period, “and most of it will probably be planted within that ideal window.
Producers are prepared with machines to harvest soybeans and plant corn quickly simultaneously.
That is why the expectation of a record planting in safrinha is maintained, where Mato Grosso alone should cover about 7.5 million hectares and harvest more than 46 million tonnes”, the specialist indicated.
According to Conab’s January estimate, Brazil’s total corn production in the 2022/2023 campaign will record 125.06 million tonnes; of these, 96.27 million tonnes will correspond to safrinha.
In the previous season, Brazilian corn production totaled 113.13 million tonnes.
With information from La Nacion