Brazilian farmers will produce a low of 50 million and a high of 56 million bags of coffee next year as production areas continue to be adversely affected by the weather, according to a report by independent analyst SpillingTheBeans.
There are still few estimates on the market for next year’s crop in the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter. Some early reports from commodity traders indicated output would be large despite the off year in the biennial arabica coffee cycle, but recent expert assessment lowered expectations.
SpillingTheBeans principal analyst Maja Wallengren said in the report released Thursday, after completing a tour of Brazilian coffee farms, that most of the trees are still recovering from the extreme weather problems that hit the country last year and this season, such as frost and drought.
“There was massive defoliation that left the trees unusually weakened and without enough nutrition to sustain cherry development from bloom,” she said, adding that the weather effects of La Niña are also significantly reducing sun exposure, a problem that reduces yields in coffee production.
The projection is at the lower end of estimates for next year’s production in Brazil published so far. The Dutch bank Rabobank, for example, forecasts a large harvest of 68.6 million bags.
The Brazilian government has not yet published its first estimate for next year’s production. It projected the 2022 crop at 50.38 million 60kg bags, up 5.6% year-on-year, but lower than the May projection of 53.43 million bags.
With information from euronews