Brazilian corn exports could jump exponentially next year if farmers harvest an entire crop and Chinese demand is strong, Brazil’s National Association of Grain Exporters said.
Brazil is poised to export 40 million to 50 million tonnes of corn next year, boosted by a new trade protocol with China and a potential bumper crop, said Sergio Mendes, director general of the group Anec, in an interview with Reuters.
Brazil could export as much as 5 million tonnes of corn to China alone in 2023, making it a key supplier alongside the United States.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, China’s import demand is 18 million tonnes for the 2022/2023 cycle.
Brazilian corn exports to China of around 62,000 tonnes in the year through October were likely limited by a strict old protocol, Mendes said, citing Brazilian trade data.
He added that Brazil’s overall export volumes could reach a record high after Beijing authorized several Brazilian corn exporters under the new protocol.
At least three vessels were named to ship Brazilian corn to China, Agrinvest analyst Eduardo Vanin wrote in a note to clients, citing shipping schedules data.
He said he expected more in the coming weeks.
Traders in Asia have talked about six to eight vessels named to take Brazil’s corn to China, Vanin added.
Chinese customs updated its list of approved Brazilian corn exporters earlier this month, a move the Brasilia government said could jumpstart sales to the world’s second-largest economy.
On Tuesday, Anec projected 38.3 million tonnes of corn exports through end-November.
For 2021, Brazilian exported 20.6 million tonnes of corn, reduced by a drought that spoiled part of the crop, Anec data showed.
With information from CLBrief