In a year marked by high inflation, central bank rate hikes, and a closer approach to a recession, the world’s stock markets have mostly traded in the red. The exceptions have been Latin American players such as Argentina, Chile, and Brazil.
The first of these countries has seen the biggest rises, with the main Argentinean index S&P Merval rising by 75.72% this year to 146,722.88 points. However, from the market, they attribute this gain to a sharp depreciation of the Argentine peso.
“The Argentine stock market has risen in pesos, but the peso is worth much, much less than before. The Merval in dollars is almost negative in the year,” explained the economist and CEO of the consulting firm Carta Financiera, Miguel Beggiano.
“From 2018 to 2020, the stock market fell 90%, so it was very penalized, and prices are on auction. Expectations are incredibly uncertain; that is why the market is not buying; there is a lot of uncertainty,” he added.
Along the same lines, Bci’s chief investment and derivatives strategist, Alexis Osses, specified that although the Merval has risen over 70% in the year, the yield is 20% in dollars. In the case of Brazil and Chile, these would be 18% and 20%.
Within the Argentinean index, the most significant gains are led by shares such as the energy company YPF, which has risen 195%; Transportadora de Gas Sur, which has gained 180%; and Sociedad Comercial del Plata, which has gained 134%.
In the case of ADRs, performance has been mixed. While the same companies operate with increases between 86.91% and 78.69%, others, such as Despegar.com and MercadoLibre, lost 33.20% and 31.72%, respectively.
CHILE AND BRAZIL
The Santiago Stock Exchange is the second in the list of highest annual gains, with a rise of 20.55%, which has led the S&P IPSA to 5,192.25 points.
The mining sector has experienced the biggest jump, the protagonist being Oro Blanco, which has risen 141%, followed by SQM-B and Quiñenco, which have risen 104% and 67%, respectively.
“Chile started the year as one of the most punished in the world, and the acceleration of China significantly supported the recovery.
“In addition, at the beginning of the year, the Apruebo was almost assured,” commented Credicorp Capital’s director of portfolio solutions, Klaus Kaempfe.
In third place, the Bovespa of the São Paulo Stock Exchange stands out with a rise of 11.8%, taking the index to 117,139 points.
That amid the presidential election process, in which candidate Lula da Silva was the most voted in the first round.
The biggest rises are of the payment systems company Cielo, with 136; the pharmaceutical Hypera Pharma, with 64%; and Petro Rio, with 51%.
“Brazil sells everything that has stopped being produced in the Ukrainian war, so in terms of exchange, it has been super favored. With a congress loaded to the right, it almost doesn’t matter if Lula da Silva or Bolsonaro comes out,” added Kaempfe.
With information from DF SUD