This week will see the release of important economic data for Latin America.
Markets will eagerly await the monetary policy meeting in Brazil, where monetary policymakers may announce the end of the upward cycle.
In Chile, the minutes of the Sept. 6 central bank meeting are expected, which could indicate the likelihood of further rate hikes in the Andean country.
Meanwhile, in Argentina, second-quarter gross domestic product data will be released.
Analysts expect those figures to indicate that household investment and consumption will lead to the expansion.
In Mexico, inflation figures are expected for the first two weeks of Sept.
In Colombia, monthly economic activity for July is likely to point to weaker GDP in the third quarter.
ARGENTINA
Argentina’s second-quarter GDP is expected Tuesday, Sept. 20.
“We expect the data to confirm the expansion shown by the monthly economic indicator,” economists said in their forecasts.
They expect growth to be driven again by investment and household consumption.
The latter indicator is expected to boost robust demand as the economy recovers.
COLOMBIA
On Monday, Sept. 19, the index of economic activity for July is expected, which will probably increase by 4.8% year-on-year in July.
This compares with growth of 8.5% in June.
BRAZIL
Brazil’s central bank will hold its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, Sept. 21, likely ending the rate hike cycle.
Monthly deflation in July and August, declining inflation expectations for 2022 and 2023, and the relative stability of the currency since the last monetary policy meeting would argue for keeping rates unchanged.
However, economists clarify that the “decision is not certain,” as the door is open for a final 25 basis point rate hike, based on the fact that economic activity surged in July in the face of Bolsonaro’s fiscal stimulus.
That month, the economy expanded after the government announced tax cuts on gasoline and utilities and higher cash transfers to lower-income sectors.
A better-than-expected second quarter and a drop in unemployment also contributed.
CHILE
The Central Bank of Chile’s monetary policy meeting minutes will be released on Thursday, Sept. 22.
They will be more valuable than usual.
The minutes are expected to provide more information about the central bank’s decision to unexpectedly accelerate the tightening cycle on Sept. 6 with a 100 basis point increase to 10.75%.
The increase exceeded market expectations.
Most analysts expected a top 50-75 basis point hike.
MEXICO
Retail sales for July are due Wednesday, Sept. 21.
Many analysts expect them to have risen 4.6% in July from a year earlier.
This would mean that sales were virtually unchanged from the previous month, following a 0.3% decline in June.
“The figures point to subdued but still positive domestic consumption,” analysts said.
Inflation data for the first half of the month will be released on Thursday, Sept. 22.
That figure could remain close to the 8.78% recorded in the second half of August.
Analysts believe this figure indicates an easing accompanied by a decline in global commodity prices and a reduction in domestic supply problems.
On the other hand, they believe there would be “worrying signs of an acceleration in core goods and services inflation.”