RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The Northeast is the only one of the five Brazilian regions indicating a crystallized scenario in favor of one of the presidential candidates if there is a second round.
Today, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party – PT) would win with 34 percentage points ahead of Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party – PL) in this region, by 62% to 28%, according to the most recent round of the PoderData survey, conducted from July 3 to 5, 2022.
Da Silva’s lead is consistent: in previous surveys conducted every 15 days, Lula da Silva had already defeated Bolsonaro by a wide margin in the Northeast. He was 42 points ahead on June 5-7, with 65% vs. 23%.
This definition, however, does not hold true in other regions. In the Southeast and South, Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro are technically tied in a possible second round, considering the margin of error in each region (2.7 p.p. in the Southeast and 4.7 p.p. in the South).
Lula da Silva today wins in the Center-West by 54% vs. 34%. Bolsonaro, in the North, by 55% vs. 37%. Both regions have higher error margins (6.9 p.p. and 6.5 p.p., respectively). But the previous rounds indicate instability in these leaders: the candidates had been registering oscillations, technically tied in most surveys.
In the general scenario of a second voting round, Da Silva is 50% against Bolsonaro’s 38%. The results are different when looking at the separate data in each region. The tendency is a clear lead for Lula in the Northeast and more muddled disputes in the other four regions.
The PoderData survey is conducted every two weeks and interviews 3,000 people every round in the 27 states of the federation. The margin of error is two percentage points for the general data, with a confidence interval of 95%. In specific demographic strata, such as regions, the margin of error is higher because fewer interviews are taken into account – only those that belong to the analyzed segment.
The survey indicates a close scenario in a possible second round between Lula da Silva and Bolsonaro. The Northeast region gives a “head start” to the PT candidate, but no candidate is sure to win in the other four regions.
With information from Poder360