RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The trading dollar closed Tuesday (5) with a gain of 1.19%, trading at R$ 5.39. This is the highest value since January 28 this year.
The depreciation of the real against the dollar is due to the international scenario of high-interest rates and investors’ concerns about the fiscal measures adopted in Brazil.
The scenario has changed. On April 4 of this year, the dollar reached R$4.61. At that time, the U.S. currency fell 17.4% in 2022, and the Real was one of the most appreciated currencies in the world. The exchange rate increased by 3.3% from December 31 to today (July 5).
In the international market, investors are following the global economic data. There is a fear of a possible global recession, especially in Europe and the United States. The war between Russia and Ukraine accelerated the inflationary environment in the world, prompting countries to adopt contractionary monetary policies.
On June 15, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its key interest rate by 0.75 percentage points, the most significant increase since 1994.
Concerns about Brazil’s fiscal framework exacerbate the poor external sentiment. The Senate approved the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that would allow President Jair Bolsonaro (P.L.) to break the spending ceiling and increase spending on social programs just over three months before the 2022 elections.
External and domestic factors caused futures rates to trend upward. January 2024 contracts closed at 13.52% (up from 13.44% the previous day). For January 2025, they rose to 12.86% from 12.74%. For January 2027, they rose from 12.69% to 12.82%.
The pessimism also affected the stock market. Ibovespa, the main index of the B3 (São Paulo Stock Exchange), fell 0.32% to 98,294 points. It reached a low of 96,499 points on the day.