RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A PoderData survey conducted from June 19 to 21 shows that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Workers’ Party (PT) pre-candidate, has 45% of voting intentions among voters who declare to have received some portion of Brazil Aid (Auxílio Brasil) -a substitute for Family Grant (Bolsa Família)- in the last month.
He is followed by President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party – PL), who reaches 28% of intentions in this group.
The two pre-candidates have oscillated downward, within the poll’s margin of error of 2 percentage points, since the last time this question was asked, from May 8-10, 2022. At that time, Da Silva scored 48% and Bolsonaro 29%.
These numbers are different from those registered in the general population as a whole – where Lula da Silva scores 44% and Jair Bolsonaro 34%.
Together, the other pre-candidates score 16% among the program’s beneficiaries. Blanks and nulls are 4%, and those who don’t know are 8%.
The Auxílio Brasil is the main move of the federal government to decrease the rejection rates among the poorest and the residents of the North and Northeast regions.
In April, Poder360 showed that there are more social program beneficiaries in 12 of the 16 states in these regions than workers with a signed contract, excluding the public sector.
To get to the result, PoderData crossed the data from the following questions: “Have you or someone in your family received any payment from Brazil Aid, the new version of the Family Grant program, in the last month?” and “If the election were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
PoderData, a company of the Poder360 Jornalismo group, carried out the survey and collected the data through calls to cell phones and landlines.
There were 3,000 interviews in 302 cities in the 27 states. The margin of error is two percentage points. The confidence interval is 95%. TSE Registration: BR-07003/2022.
FIRST ROUND
The scenario for the first round remained stable, considering the margin of error of two percentage points. Da Silva has 44% of the intentions and Bolsonaro, 34%. Compared to the round from June 5 to 7, the PT candidate increased one point, while the current president retreated one p.p.
SECOND ROUND
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) extended his advantage over Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in a possible second round of voting. The PT presidential candidate has 52% voting intentions, against the current president’s 35%. The distance is 17 percentage points.
It is the first time in four months that Da Silva’s lead has grown outside the margin of error of two points.
With information from Poder360