RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The number of murders in Brazil continues to fall in 2022, according to the national homicide index created by G1, based on official data from 26 states and the Federal District.
There were 10,200 murders in the first three months of this year, representing a decrease of 6% compared to the same period last year.
The number includes victims of the following crimes:
- intentional homicides (including femicides)
- robberies followed by death
- bodily injury followed by death
In 2021, Brazil had a 7% drop in the number of murders, as pointed out by an exclusive survey by the Violence Monitor. There were 41,100 intentional violent deaths in the country last year, the lowest number in the entire historical series of the Brazilian Forum for Public Safety (FBSP), which has been collecting data since 2007.
According to specialists from FBSP and São Paulo University’s Center for the Study of Violence (NEV-USP), the lower number of deaths is motivated by several factors, including changes in the dynamics of the Brazilian drug market; greater control and influence of governments over criminals; appeasement of conflicts between drug factions; public security and social policies; and a reduction in the number of young people in the population.
Data from the first quarter of 2022 shows that:
- there were approximately 10,200 murders in the first three months of this year, almost 700 fewer deaths than in the same period of 2021;
- On the opposite side of the country, five states registered an increase in the number of deaths: Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Pernambuco, Piauí, and Rondônia;
- Acre had the most significant drop: 30%;
- Rondônia had the most considerable increase in crimes: 48%.
The survey, which compiles monthly data, is part of the Violence Monitor, a partnership between G1, NEV-USP, and FBSP.
GENERALIZED DROP
The data shows that all regions in the country showed a drop in intentional violent deaths at the beginning of this year.
The most significant drop was in the Southeast region, with a decrease of more than 10%. All states had a reduction, but Rio de Janeiro mainly drove the fall. The state had 193 fewer deaths in the period, representing a 20% decrease compared to last year.
With this decrease, Rio de Janeiro is no longer the state with the second-highest number of murders in Brazil but the fourth highest. The ranking continues to be headed by Bahia, a state where violence fell by 8.5% but registered an impressive 1,300 murders in the first three months of this year.
The five states with the most murders in the country:
- Bahia: 1,326 deaths
- Pernambuco: 963 people killed
- São Paulo: 812 people killed
- Rio de Janeiro: 781 people
- Ceará: 755 deaths
According to the Public Safety Institute, even in 2021, murders reached a historic low in Rio.
According to Paulo Storani, a public security specialist, investments in ostensive policing, the distribution of agents throughout the urban territory, and the carrying out of operations may have contributed to the drop.
OFF THE CURVE: STATES ON THE RISE
Even though there was a decrease in the number of murders in the first quarter of this year, the data from the Center-West region draws attention for not having presented such a representative drop as in other regions of the country. There were 730 registered deaths this year, against 736 last year.
Two states in the region had considerable increases: Mato Grosso do Sul (17%) and Mato Grosso (15%).
The border between Brazil and Paraguay is one of the areas that stands out negatively because of the deaths. In February, for example, two men were executed in Ponta Porã (Mato Grosso do Sul) in less than three hours.
The first was businessman Joaquim Vinicius Miranda Borges, 33 years old. Shooters executed him in a residential neighborhood.
Less than three hours later, 34-year-old Einer Miguel Pinazo was also shot to death inside a car. Pinazo is suspected of having links to drug trafficking and receiving stolen trucks.
The Mato Grosso state government said that it “has registered a reduction in annual rates of homicides for ten consecutive years” and that “this period [quarter] is too short to make an analysis.
It also informed that it closed 2021 with 82% of the homicide investigations concluded. Last year, Mato Grosso do Sul security forces seized 31 tons of drugs and removed 720 illegal firearms.
NORTH REGION
In the North region, Rondônia had an even higher increase than Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul. There were 85 cases in the first quarter of 2021 against 126 this year. These numbers represent a 48% increase.
Rondônia was one of the six states that had an increase in murders in the annual balance of 2021. There was a 7% increase in the state’s violence records.
The State Secretariat for Security, Defense, and Citizenship (Sesdec) said that mainly Porto Velho “has suffered from the actions of criminal organizations seeking to dominate other criminal groups. This dispute has direct consequences on the current increase in homicide numbers”.
The portfolio reported that “efforts have been made to unite the state Public Security Forces through logistical support and information, to tackle this issue. It also said that a task force is being formed to fight organized crime.
NATIONAL DOWNWARD TREND
Even with occasional increases in violence in some states, the drop in the first quarter of 2022 indicates Brazil is following the same national trend of 2021 when it registered a 7% decrease in murders.
Experts from NEV-USP and FBSP list some points to explain the numbers and the decrease in violence:
- Change in the dynamics of the Brazilian drug market: “Balanced criminal markets, with competitors that have learned to coexist with each other or have found ways to regulate the relationship between them, tend to reduce the total number of fatal conflicts,” says Bruno Paes Manso, from NEV-USP.
- Greater control and influence of governments over criminals: “The very business model created by these groups has made the leaderships of the various prison gangs more vulnerable and subject to pressure from governments,” says Manso.
- Appeasement of conflicts between factions: “Between 2016 and 2017, we experienced a war between two criminal groups, the PCC and the Comando Vermelho, and this war spread throughout the country, especially in states in the North and Northeast. In some territories, this conflict has calmed down, and in others, there is a certain monopoly of one group. When a single group consolidates itself in the territory, it reduces the conflict,” says Samira Bueno from FBSP.
- Creation of focalization programs and other public policies: “Several federal units adopted, throughout 2000 and 2010, homicide reduction programs based on focalization of actions in the territories. The Pact for Life, in Pernambuco, the Present State, in Espírito Santo, and Pacific Ceará, in Ceará, are examples of projects that sought to integrate police actions and preventive measures,” said Samira Bueno and Renato Sérgio de Lima from FBSP.
- Reduction in the number of young people in the population: “It has to do with demographic changes, something that we have been pointing out for some years in the Atlas of Violence, which is the reduction in the number of young people in the population. It is known that most of the lethal violence affects young men. And Brazil is facing a major demographic change,” said Bueno.
- Creation of the Unified Public Security System (SUSP) and changes in the transfer rules: “In 2018, the federal government managed to approve, after a 14-year process, the law that created the SUSP, responsible for regulating the 1988 Constitution regarding the integration and efficiency of public security institutions. In 2018, there was a change in the rules for the transfer of resources collected by the Caixa Lotteries, which, in practice, meant that about 80% of all the security money transferred to states and the Federal District from 2019 to 2021 would come from the lotteries and, thus, new resources could be allocated to the area,” said Bueno and Lima.
The researchers point out that the drop in the homicide rate can happen even with the greater introduction of weapons due to decrees and changes in legislation promoted by the federal government. According to the Brazilian Yearbook of Public Security published last year, Brazil doubled the number of weapons in the hands of civilians in just three years.
“The legal and illegal weapons and ammunition – which are diverted and enter the criminal market – do not cause, in isolation, variations in the rates. They increase circumstantial homicides in bars, nightclubs, traffic, and femicides. But they don’t necessarily affect the criminal dynamics in the states,” says Manso.
RATE PER 100,000 INHABITANTS
Pernambuco is the state with the highest violent crime rate in the country. There are ten deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, with an increase of 2.4 cases compared to the first quarter of 2021.
In the table of the absolute number of victims, it appears in second place, with 963 deaths, behind Bahia (1,326 deaths), which reverses its position with the neighboring state and has the second-highest violent crime rate in the country. There were 8.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in the first quarter of 2022, a drop from 9.7 in the same period of the previous year.
The most considerable reduction in the murder rate was in Roraima, with 2.4 fewer cases. In the first three months of 2021, the rate was 6.3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, compared to 8.7 in the previous period.
São Paulo, the most populous state in the country, has the lowest violent crime rate per 100,000 inhabitants, despite being the 3rd state with the most deaths in absolute terms. The rate remained practically the same in the comparison period (1.7 against 1.8).
With information from G1