RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – In theory, Peru’s annual copper production could reach 5 million tons by the end of the decade. But in practice, mining attrition is likely to keep this figure below 4 million tons, according to BTG Pactual.
Analysts, including Cesar Perez-Novoa, wrote in a research note that some greenfields have high production in their early years, but this gradually declines over three to five years, even below their mining plans.
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Peruvian mines are expected to produce 2.3 million tons this year due to community protests and Covid-19 protocols slowing the industry.
Next year, the amount should grow to 3 million tons as the new Justa mine picks up pace, Anglo starts up its Quellaveco mine, and some existing mines expand.
While the total copper investment portfolio of US$36.5 billion aims to increase volume by 2.78 million tons, BTG Pactual projects that 2030 production is more likely to be 4 million tons rather than 5 million tons.
In addition, “asynchronous” government communications, social unrest, and a proposed tax increase threaten Peru’s status as a reliable copper jurisdiction.