As the first four months of 2024 unfolded, Peru experienced a modest inflation growth of 1.36%, with a minimal dip of 0.01% in April.
The National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) detailed these figures, marking a subtle yet steady economic pulse within the nation.
In April, Lima Metropolitana’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.05%, leading to a 1.54% increase from January to April.
Over the last year, this city observed a 2.42% inflation rate, slightly above the national average of 2.11%.
During April, notable declines occurred in three sectors. Prices in “Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages” dropped by 0.55%.
There were smaller decreases in “Recreation and Culture” and “Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco” of 0.03% and 0.02%, respectively.
In contrast, several sectors reported upward trends in prices. “Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels” increased by 0.33%.
Both “Health” and “Restaurants and Hotels” climbed by 0.26%, and “Miscellaneous Goods and Services” grew by 0.22%.
The geographic spread of these changes was also noteworthy. Of the 26 cities analyzed, 17 reported price increases, with Moyobamba leading at 0.77%.
This narrative of inflation in Peru reflects a controlled economic environment where small fluctuations indicate underlying stability.
Such trends are crucial for forecasting future economic health and for policymakers aiming to bolster economic resilience.
As Peru navigates 2024, these inflation metrics serve as both a gauge and a guide.
They illustrate the ongoing interplay between economic stability and growth within emerging markets.
Background
Analysts anticipate a 2.6% inflation rate by 2024’s end, with financial and non-financial firms predicting slightly higher rates.
This consensus falls within the BCRP’s target, indicating stable expectations among economic agents.
Following a peak of over 8% inflation in mid-2022, the central bank increased interest rates to 7.75%.
The rapid decline in inflation rates has since allowed for a softer monetary stance, now at 6.5%.
Despite adjustments, GDP growth forecasts for 2024 remain optimistic, ranging between 2.0% and 2.5%, with expectations for 2025 between 2.7% and 3.0%.