RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – After a rainy spring, a good part of Brazil’s Center-South will experience an irregular rainy summer, with dry months alternating with rainy periods. In the Center-North, the multistate “Matopiba” region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia) will also experience a shortage of rain in the summer.
Weather projections from November through April were presented by INMET. The estimates will be updated monthly and will follow a six-month moving average. Next month, forecasts from December through May will be released. In January, the forecasts will cover the period through June.
According to INMET, November has been marked by heavy rainfall in the Center-North and below average rainfall in the South. Projections indicate the maintenance of this pattern until the end of the month.
In December, the forecast indicates rain between 10 millimeters and 50 millimeters below average in Rio Grande do Sul, west of Santa Catarina, north of Minas Gerais, Acre, southwest of Amazonas and Matopiba. In the other areas, rainfall should be close to or slightly above average.
For January, INMET forecasts below average rainfall in Goiás, Minas Gerais, Federal District, Espírito Santo, central Mato Grosso do Sul, south and east Tocantins, south Piauí and Bahia (except in the east of the state). The South may experience slightly above average rainfall, as well as the state of São Paulo and the northern part of Brazil.
For February, the model suggests irregular rains in virtually the entire central belt and the South Region. Certain areas of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina should have below average rainfall.
In March and April, rainfall should remain below average in the South. It should also rain less than expected in Mato Grosso do Sul and in the south of Mato Grosso.
However, other areas, such as Amazonas, Roraima, Pará, Piauí and the center and south of Ceará, may see above average rainfall. There is also a trend towards more rain than normal in the south of Minas Gerais and the north of São Paulo, where important reservoirs for the electric sector are concentrated.
Regarding the average temperature for the next 6 months, INMET estimates that the central area of Brazil will be up to 1°C above average between December and February. In the South, temperatures should remain close to the average over the same period.
In March and April, there is a trend towards normal to above-average temperatures for virtually the whole South, which reduces forecasts for frost in the early fall.
According to INMET, the new disclosure model, based on the behavior of the atmosphere and on data from over 750 automatic and conventional weather stations, helps rural producers in their decision making, defines the planning of hydroelectric power generation, and helps to estimate the viability of river transport in the country’s main watersheds.