RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – A survey by Atlas, published exclusively by EL PAÍS, also shows that for 24% of respondents, voting for a homosexual candidate is unthinkable and that women are more progressive in this regard than men.
In Brazil, one of the countries where most LGBTQIA+ people are killed in the world – with an estimated one victim of homophobia every 23 hours – 60% of voters say they would vote for an openly gay candidate for the presidency of the Republic.
This is the result of the survey “Impact of the candidates’ sexual orientation on voting intention – Political positioning of the LGBT electorate”, conducted by Atlas Institute and released exclusively by EL PAÍS on Wednesday.
The data is also surprising in view of the fact that the position is currently occupied by Jair Bolsonaro, a president who has been notorious for a series of homophobic comments throughout his political career.
2,884 people were interviewed between July 26 and 29. For 24% of those interviewed, however, voting for a homosexual candidate is still unthinkable, and 17% said they did not know whether they would vote or not. The study has a margin of error of 2 percentage points, up or down.
Currently, in Brazil, few heads of state or municipal executives declare themselves to be LGBTQIA+. Recently, the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSDB), came out gay.
The Toucan received support in political circles but was criticized for having supported Bolsonaro in the second round of elections in 2018. On the occasion of Leite’s position on his homosexuality, former congressman Jean Wyllys recalled that the governor of Rio Grande do Norte, Fátima Bezerra (PT), is also gay and mentioned the petista’s fight against homophobia.
She, in turn, expressed support for the toucan’s gesture: “In my public or private life, there have never been closets. I have always marked my positions through my political actions, without ever omitting myself in the fight against machismo, racism, LGBTphobia, and any other type of oppression,” she wrote in her social networks.
In the rest of South America, there are at least two homosexual heads of the Executive: Claudia López Hernández, mayor of Bogotá in Colombia, and Gustavo Melella, governor of the province of Tierra del Fuego in Argentina.
In Europe, openly LGBTQIA+ people in governments are more common: Belgium, Ireland, Finland, Luxembourg, and Serbia have all had gay and lesbian prime ministers.
On the other hand, the European continent concerns the advance of homophobic bills in ultra-rightist Viktor Órban’s Hungary, which several EU leaders have already spoken out against.
With regard to support for LGBTQIA+ politicians, the Atlas Institute survey shows that women are more progressive: in the segmentation by gender, 69% of them said they would vote for a gay candidate, compared to 50% among men.
Only 19% of the women interviewed said they would not choose an openly gay candidate, who would also be rejected by 29% of the men heard by the survey.
When analyzed by religion, the evangelicals – who are one of Bolsonaro’s main supporters and account for about 30% of the more than 210 million Brazilians – are more conservative in this regard: 42% of them said they would not vote for a gay candidate, compared to 17% of Catholics, 14% of other religions, and 7% of agnostics and atheists.
As for those who answered that they would help elect a homosexual, 76% are from other religions, 74% agnostics or atheists, 66% Catholics, and 38% Evangelicals.
But despite tending toward conservatism, evangelicals are currently divided. “This public is still a stronghold of Bolsonarism [70% of this slice of the population voted in 2018 for Bolsonaro], in fact, one of the most consistent.
But it cannot be considered a public completely closed to other political ideas and opinions, nor do they act and vote as a bloc. It is important to note, even, that Lula has been recovering space with a lot of steam in this segment,” says political scientist Andrei Roman, Atlas’ CEO.
The most educated are also more likely to choose a gay candidate for the presidency of the Republic: 73% of people with higher education heard in the survey said they would be willing to elect a homosexual person, compared to 60% with high school and 51% with elementary school.
This trend is reversed among those who say they would not vote for gays, with respondents who have completed elementary school forming a majority (with 27%), compared to 25% rejection among those with high school and 16% of those with higher education.
This indicates the importance of education “in the sense of breaking down barriers and resistance within society, especially regarding the acceptance of diversity,” says Roman. “As people have more information about the issue and are part of an environment where these issues are discussed in a more in-depth way, this resistance [to a gay candidate] tends to decrease,” he says.
The Atlas survey also asked whether the fact that a presidential candidate came out as gay would have any impact on voters. Among the respondents, 67% said that such a fact would have no impact on their choice, while 24% would decrease the chance of voting for this politician. Only 9% said it would increase their chance of choosing this candidate.
The survey also shows that President Bolsonaro has a record of disapproval among those interviewed who declare themselves homosexuals: 94% do not think that the president runs a good government, compared to 61% of rejection among heterosexuals.
Among those who approve of the administration, 37% are heterosexual, and 6% are homosexual. LGBTQIA+ respondents also strongly support the impeachment of the president: 91% are in favor of Bolsonaro’s removal, compared to 54% among respondents who declare themselves straight.
Only 7% of the homosexuals interviewed are against the impeachment (which jumps to 42% among straight respondents).
Following this anti-Bolsolsonist trend among homosexual respondents, former president Lula (PT) is the favorite candidate of 63% of this population segment in the first round of the 2022 elections. The PT also has the preference of 38% of heterosexuals heard in the survey.
The current president is in second place, with 37% of heterosexuals and 6% of homosexuals. Ciro Gomes (PSB) is preferred by 7% of homosexuals and 6% of heterosexuals, and João Doria (PSDB) by 6% and 3% of these populations, respectively. The governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSDB), is the favorite of 4% of homosexuals heard in the Atlas survey and 3% heterosexuals.
For Andrei Roman, Atlas CEO, the little engagement of the LGBTQIA+ population with an eventual campaign of Eduardo Leite for the Planalto may be related to the fact that the Toucan has never openly supported the causes of diversity: “This indicates that the gay population has one foot behind him because he has not made the defense of rights of this segment of society a central part of his political career,” he says.