RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – Up to 65% of cars sold in Brazil in 2035 will be electric, a scenario that will require an investment of at least R$150 (US$28.9) billion over the next 15 years, according to a study released Tuesday (10) by the sector’s association.
The multimillion dollar sum will need to be invested in technology and infrastructure for automotive manufacturing, in a joint effort between the sector, fuel and energy producers, and the government, according to the National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA).
This estimate is based on a study conducted by ANFAVEA and the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), which projects the automotive future of the country under 3 different scenarios.
According to the study, currently only 2% of cars sold in Brazil are electric.
Sales could rise to 22% by 2030 and reach 65% in 2035 if the different sectors involved organize and work jointly for its implementation and if public policies to encourage this effort are promoted, a scenario similar to that of the most developed countries.
The percentages would drop by almost half (12% of cars sold in 2030 would be electric and 35% in 2035) if the scenario for the coming years remains unchanged in Brazil.
A third context would give prominence to green biofuels, a field in which Brazil is a world leader with ethanol. In this scenario, the focus would be on reducing carbon dioxide emissions – CO2, the most polluting gas – through the combination of ethanol and electric propulsion, which would lead to an automotive electrification process similar to the one described in the previous scenario.
In any event, even in the most conservative context, the Brazilian market will demand millions of electric vehicles until the middle of the next decade: about 432,000 cars in 2030 and 1.3 million in 2035, according to the study.
The industry will need to enter a new investment cycle to remain competitive while guaranteeing 1.3 million direct and indirect jobs in the automotive chain, the study points out.
To this end, large investments will be required for Brazil to be able not only to supply its local market but also to consolidate itself as an export hub.
“It is time for all sectors involved with the country’s land transportation chain and all areas of government to join forces to define what we want, while respecting the vocations of our industry and the particularities of our country-continent,” said ANFAVEA’s president Luis Carlos Moraes during the event presenting the study’s results.
“Only with these goals defined can the right investments be made, placing Brazil on a global path with no turning back, which is the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. We have this obligation to future generations,” he added.
Several countries worldwide have already defined their automotive electrification policies.
Last week, U.S. president Joe Biden turned the issue into a matter of state when he announced an executive order to ensure that by 2030 half of all cars sold in the United States will be electric.