RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – The central coast of Peru is the area of the South American Pacific where a mega-earthquake of magnitude 8.9 could give rise to the highest tsunami, according to a Chilean study whose simulations show an inundation range for this location between 25 and 45 meters.
In Chile, the simulations showed the worst scenarios for the northern sectors of Arica and Iquique, where the tsunamis would exceed 30 meters in height, in the first case, and would be between 35 and 40 meters in the second.
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The Chilean city of Valparaíso, on the central coast, would suffer tsunamis of between 30 and 35 meters, according to the study developed by researchers of the Seismic Risk Program of the University of Chile and recently published in the journal Pure and Applied Geophysics.
In Ecuador, a maximum wave height of 25 meters is calculated for a scenario with an earthquake of magnitude 8.6; In contrast, in the case of Colombia, facing a possible earthquake of 8.7, a maximum wave height of 20 meters is calculated.
The work came up with these results after analyzing eight areas in the western fringe of the continent where large earthquakes are expected because they have occurred in the past, but they have not happened again for a long time.
In each of them, specifically in the areas of Colombia, Ecuador-Colombia; northern, central, and southern Peru; and northern, central-northern, and central Chile, the research simulated the maximum tsunami to be expected through 200 probable scenarios in each place.
The research states that the levels of inundation resulting from tsunamis vary according to the area and depend, in addition to the magnitude of the seismic movement, on factors such as the slope of the coast and geographical features.
Through a press release, the study’s authors emphasized that these results are quite close to the scenarios that could occur in reality, especially considering as a reference the 2011 earthquake in Japan, where the subsequent tsunami exceeded 40 meters in height.
“This was a purely applied work, which can be very useful for public policy on risk and disaster prevention,” said researcher Sebastián Riquelme.
In that sense, the study concluded that the 30 meters of general shelter that have been adopted in Chile as a safety measure in the face of these events are not enough.