RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – For the first time since the Datafolha Institute began asking Brazilians about the topic in April 2020, most respondents say they favor the opening of impeachment proceedings against the President Jair Bolsonaro (no party).
A total of 2,074 people over the age of 16 were interviewed nationwide on July 7 and 8. 54% favor the action by the House of Representatives, while 42% are against the initiative. The margin of error is two percentage points higher or lower.
In the previous round, held on May 11 and 12, those favoring the ban had outnumbered those against the idea, but there was still a technical tie, 49% to 46%. Now the gap is widening.
It is a recent process, reflecting the deepening political crisis combined with the health tragedy of the Covid-19 pandemic, which claimed in Brazil more than 520,000 lives.
520,000 is an enormous number. But then again, Brazil is also a country of continental dimension.
If the number of deaths per million is considered Brazil ranks seventh among the ten most affected nations, along with Peru, the Czech Republic, Colombia, Argentina, Italy, Belgium, and other European countries.
But while in these countries no one blames the government for the high number of covid deaths, in Brazil it is quite different. The role of the federal government is being investigated by the Senate’s parliamentary committee of inquiry CPI. The left even speaks of genocide.
And there is a rosary of other challenging news for Planalto between the May survey and the current one.
Suspicions of alleged negotiations of non-existent vaccines were discovered, with accusations of alleged bribery revealed by one of Bolsonaro’s most powerful arch-enemies, the left-leaning Folha newspaper.
Datafolha, which conducted this survey, also belongs to the same Folha Group owned by the Frias family, the second-largest Brazilian media conglomerate after Grupo Globo.
Bolsonaro became the target of an inquiry for allegedly having prevaricated by citing his leader in the House, Ricardo Barros (PP-PR), as the leader of the irregularities in question.
Meanwhile, there was a super request for impeachment in Congress, thrown into the drawer by the president of the House, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), the lead figure of the centrist allies of Bolsonaro and the person to whom it is up to forward or not the process.
That is why street protests, even more circumscribed to the left, took shape on three occasions. It can be assumed that more protests orchestrated by the leftist establishment will follow to make Lira compliant.
Until the March 15-16 poll, opposition to impeachment, or almost a technical tie, dominated. Now, the curve registered in May has taken a new turn.
The impeachment of the president is the subject of discussion. Centrist leaders like Gilberto Kassab (PSD) and Michel Temer (MDB), compasses of the majority political mood, recently told Folha that there might be inevitability if there are people in the streets pressuring Congress.
At the same time, there is fear of unrest due to the combative mindset of Bolsonaro and his supporters who have already verbally positioned themselves against the looming ‘leftist plot’ against him. It can be assumed that Bolsonaro will strike back. The only question is when and how.
Given this situation, the bleeding of popularity currently orchestrated by his opponents and actively promoted in the country by media hostile to Bolsonaro would probably be a less traumatic notion, which pleases the current leader in the polls, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).
Women (59%), young people (61%), the poorest (60%, in the largest group in the survey’s economic stratification, 57% of the sample), and those living in the Northeast (64%) are more in favor of impeachment. These data follow the line of other approaches made by Datafolha about Bolsonaro.
Even higher approval values for the process are found among those who declare themselves black (65%) and homosexual or bisexual (77%).
Support for the president is higher among older people (49% rejection of the process), among evangelicals (56%), those earning 5 to 10 minimum wages (62%), wealthier people (59%), and businessmen (68%, but a group with only 2% of the sample).
Regionally, the story from other angles of the poll is repeated. Bolsonaro sees the rejection of impeachment win by 52% to 46% in the North/Central West and registers a tie in the South, with 49% each way -the two areas are the most Bolsonarist in the country.
The president’s situation is uncomfortable, but history brings different examples.
The two presidents who have been impeached since the re-democratization of 1985 had higher approval for the process.
Fernando Collor (then in the PRN) saw 75% of the population calling for his head on the eve of the opening of proceedings in the House of Representatives in September 1992 – he would resign after being removed for trial.
Dilma Rousseff (PT) had 63% to 68% support for her impeachment in three surveys conducted by Datafolha. She was removed from office in 2016, giving way to her vice president, Michel Temer (MDB).