RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – According to data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), this Friday, April 9th, inflation for the month closed at 0.93%, the highest rate for the month since 2015.
In February, the IPCA stood at 0.86%. The readjustments in fuel and cooking gas in the first months of the year reflected the consumer’s impact and, consequently, in the acceleration of the indicator.
“Successive readjustments were applied in gasoline and diesel prices at the refineries between February and March, and this ended up impacting the sales prices for the final consumer at the pumps. Gasoline at the pumps rose by 11.26%, ethanol by 12.59%, and diesel by 9.05%. The same happened with bottled gas, which had two readjustments in the refineries in this period, accumulating a high of 10.46%, and now the consumer perceives this increase,” explains the survey manager, Pedro Kislanov.
According to IBGE, the index accumulates a variation of 2.05% in the year and 6.10% in the last 12 months. The inflation target for this year is 3.75%, with a tolerance margin of 5.25%.
However, the Central Bank believes in an inflationary peak of 8% in the middle of this year, with a deceleration for the indicator to close at 4.4% by the end of the year. The pressure of prices, however, is a cause for concern. So much so that it was what prompted the 0.75 percentage point increase in the Selic, the Treasury’s basic interest rate, last month. Currently, the Selic is at 2.75% per year.
The inflationary pressure changed villains in 2020; if last year the pressure was very much on food, which accelerated due to the high demand and change in consumption patterns, the current trend is the opposite.
According to the IBGE, the price continues to rise but less each month. In March, the index rose 0.13%. The previous variations were 1.74% in December, 1.02% in January, and 0.27% in February.
“Food had a high of 14.09% in 2020, but it has shown a tendency to slow down since December. Some factors contribute to this, such as a more stable exchange rate and the reduction in demand due to the suspension of emergency aid in the first months of the year,” comments Kislanov.
For those who only eat at home, prices did fall: food at home fell by 0.17%, while food away from home rose by 0.89%. Lower prices for tomatoes (-14.12%), potatoes (-8.81%), rice (-2.13%), and long-life milk (-2.27%) made meals at home cheaper. But meat (0.85%) continues on the rise, although the variation was lower than in February (1.72%).
Positive Sign
The IGP-M, calculated by the FGV and used to readjust rent contracts, was also released this Friday. In the first advance for April, there was a deceleration. The indicator stood at 0.50%. In the same period in March, the index had registered a rate of 1.95%.
“Stability in prices of agricultural and mineral commodities favored the deceleration of IPCA. In this first preliminary of April, all processing stages of the producer index registered a deceleration, especially Intermediate Goods (5.32% to 1.59%), whose rate dropped 3.73 percentage points. The variation in Raw Materials (0.46% to -0.91%) registered a drop, a movement rarely seen in the last few months,” said André Braz, Price Index Coordinator.
Source: Veja