RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL – President Jair Bolsonaro relativized on Monday, March 22nd, the gravity of the impact of Covid-19 in Brazil. In an event at the Planalto Palace, he said the country is “doing well” and “setting an example” amid the pandemic, and that “it seems that, in the whole world, only in Brazil people are dying.”
The Brazilian data of new deaths and cases by Covid-19, when compared to other countries, however, show that the situation is very serious, both in relative and absolute numbers.
The country currently has one of the highest incidences of new deaths per day per million inhabitants, a number that already considers the size of each country’s population. On Monday, this rate in Brazil was 10.9, 60% above the South American average and more than double that recorded in the European Union.
In absolute terms, Brazil is the clear leader in daily deaths. On Monday, 26% of the people who died in the in the entire world from Covid-19 were in the country, or one in every four. There were 2,300 deaths for the average prior seven days in Brazil, more than double the second-placed United States, with 978 deaths.
Variation around the world
Overall, the world has faced since mid-February a rise in the daily number of new cases of Covid-19 and some stability in the daily number of new deaths. But the composition of the two factors changes according to continent.
In Latin America, there is a rise in new cases and deaths, with Brazil standing accused of being the major culprit in this trajectory. In Europe, there is also a rise in new cases, which has caused several countries to implement or extend lockdowns, but there has not yet been a significant rise in daily deaths, with the exception of some Eastern European nations.
In North America, there is a drop in the incidence of deaths and cases, driven by the United States, while in Asia and Africa the incidence of cases and deaths has remained low since mid-February, with a slight increase in cases in Asian countries.
Below are data on new cases and deaths from Covid-19 in several continents, compared to Brazil. The data takes into account the population of each country, reflects the rolling average of the last seven days, and was compiled by Oxford University. In all countries, the number of confirmed cases is presumed to be lower than the actual number, due to underreporting and limited testing.
South America
The South American continent has seen a rise in the number of cases and deaths since mid-February, with Brazil heading the list for most of this period. The country also stands out for having a much higher incidence of new deaths per day than its neighbors.
In mid-February, South America had about four new deaths and 160 new cases per day per million people. On Monday, March 22nd, there were 6.8 deaths per day and 251 new cases.
In Brazil, there were in mid-February about five new deaths and 220 new cases per day per million people. The incidence evolved to 10.9 new deaths and 355 cases this Monday.
The rate of deaths in relation to the population in Brazil was much higher than in other South American countries and is now the highest incidence on the continent. This rate has more than doubled in Brazil since mid-February, while in South America as a whole it has grown 61%.
In Peru, the number of new daily deaths per million is 5.2, in Paraguay 5, in Chile 4.4, in Uruguay 3.9, and in Argentina 2.6.
There is no single explanation as to why the incidence of deaths in Brazil is significantly higher than in neighboring countries. Experts point to the circulation of the more aggressive Amazon variant, hospitals working at the limit of their capacity, and lack of adequate inputs and human resources in the health system as factors.
In relation to the number of new cases per million inhabitants, Brazil today is only surpassed in the continent by Uruguay, a country with only 3.5 million people, which on Monday registered an incidence of 467 new cases per million, against 150 in mid-February.
Chile, the country with the most advanced vaccination in the continent and a standard reference in the world, has also been registering an increase in the incidence of new cases, with a rate of 313 per million on Monday, against around 180 in mid-February. In Paraguay, the incidence of new cases is at 294, and in Argentina, 159.
North America
The United States, the country with the highest number of cumulative Covid-19 deaths and cases, led for several months of the pandemic in the incidence of new cases and deaths per day among large nations.
That began to change earlier this year, with a robust vaccination program and new measures to encourage isolation implemented during the Joe Biden administration. Today the Americans are in a much more comfortable situation than the Brazilians.
In the incidence of new cases per day, Brazil overtook the United States on February 19. On Monday, the Americans registered 161 new cases per day per million, while Brazil had 355 – a 120% higher incidence of cases.
In the incidence of new deaths per day, Brazil surpassed the United States on March 2nd. On Monday, the Americans registered three deaths per million inhabitants, while Brazil had 10.9 – 264% higher.
The incidence of new deaths keeps falling among Americans, but the incidence of new cases has been stable for about ten days.
Canada has performed well throughout the pandemic and has recorded a drop in the daily incidence of new deaths since mid-January, now at 0.8 per million. The incidence of new daily cases, however, has been stagnant since mid-February at around 80 per 1 million people, with a slight increase in the last week.
Europe
Among European countries, the one that has seen the sharpest drop in the number of Covid-19 cases and deaths is the UK, which has implemented an aggressive vaccination program combined with strict lockdown.
At its worst, on January 23, the British recorded 18.5 new deaths per million per day, an incidence 80% higher than that seen in Brazil today. On Monday, the UK had 1.25 new deaths per day per million, and 81.6 new cases by the same criteria.
The European Union, which includes 27 countries, has been registering an upward trajectory in the incidence of new cases per million since mid-February, and on Monday the rate was 336.7, just below the Brazilian rate of 355.
In many countries of the bloc, the incidence of new cases is today similar or higher than the Brazilian rate, as in Belgium (362.1), Holland (387.2), Sweden (449), France (462.4), Hungary (834.7) and the Czech Republic (865.9). In Germany, the incidence of new cases is 158.5, in Spain 103, and in Portugal 45.7.
The comparison with Brazil stands out in the incidence of new deaths per day. In the European Union as a whole, this rate on Monday was 5, less than half the Brazilian rate of 10.9. In France, the figure is 3.9, in Spain, 3.4, in Germany, 2.2 and in Portugal, 1.3.
The difference in the incidence of deaths is more significant when one considers that the percentage of elderly people, the population most vulnerable to complications from Covid-19, is much higher in the European Union than in Brazil.
In the European bloc, people aged 65 and older represented 20.3% of the population in 2019. Among Brazilians, 10.5% were in this age group in 2018, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Among European Union countries, the worst incidence of new deaths is in Hungary, which, like Brazil, is led by a far-right politician, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. On Monday, Hungarians recorded 20.2 new deaths per covid per million, almost double the current Brazilian incidence.
The Czech Republic (19.1), Bulgaria (14.7), Slovakia (13) and Poland (8.1) also have a high incidence of new deaths at the moment in the European bloc.
Source: DW